Can Labour win?

Here in the UK, there has to be a General Election in the next seven months. The most likely date is Thursday 6 May 2010 when we have local elections. Labour will be defending its record in office of 13 years. Can it win a fourth term? Sadly I think not.
But it may be that the Conservatives will be denied an overall majority. In the “Observer” today, we have the results of an Ipsos MORI poll which puts the Conservatives on 37%, only six points ahead of Labour on 31%. The Liberal Democrats are on 17%. This is the narrowest gap between the two main parties in any poll since last December.
In an analysis piece, Bob Worcester, head of Ipsos MORI, explains that “the Tories need to win 117 seats to achieve a simple majority, but perhaps 140 for a working majority, which is a huge mountain to climb”.
If the Ipsos MORI poll is accurate (it may be rogue) and if the voting intentions are replicated at the next election, the Conservatives will hold the most seats but fall 35 short of an overall majority in the Commons.

One Comment

  • Nick

    There’s some interesting commentary on the invaluable UK Polling Report: More on Ipsos MORI’s 6 point lead and Ipsos MORI show smallest Tory lead since 2008.

    In conclusion, while a lot of the massive shift in voting intentions in this poll appears to be down to sample variation, there’s a modest firming of the Labour vote too. We should still wait for some more polls to see whether that itself is real, and whether other companies also pick up a firming of the Labour vote. I wouldn’t, however, expect any company using political weighting to show quite such a narrowing of the lead.


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