That was the week that was
In the early 1960s, there was a BBC television programme called “That Was The Week That Was” which was a bitingly funny piece of political satire. Boy, if it was around today, what material this week would have given them. I did a blog posting a week ago which anticipated some of the excitement, but all political commentators have been stunned by the events of the past five days.
Of course, we knew that there were going to be local elections and that the results would be terrible for Labour – and so it proved. Staffordshire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire were lost by Labour for the first time in 28 years and Lancashire for the first time since 1989. Nationwide the Conservatives now have over 10,000 councillors to Labour’s less than 5,000.
We don’t know all the results yet, but it looks as if the parties’ share of the votes will be: Conservatives 38%, Lib Dems 28%, Labour 23%, others 11%. This is awful for Labour, but frankly it could have been worse – and it may yet get worse with the European election results (a nationwide test) on Monday threatening to fall below 20% for the party.
We also knew that Gordon Brown would reshuffle his Cabinet in an effort to retain his authority and remain at No 10. What we did not expect was that no less than six Cabinet Ministers – Jacqui Smith, Hazel Blears, John Hutton, Geoff Hoon, Paul Murphy and (most dramatically) James Purnell – would resign from the Cabinet and that Caroline Flint would put the stiletto in. Brown’s refusal to say earlier in the week that Alistair Darling would remain at the Treasury and then his inability to put Ed Balls in the post betrays a real sense of weakness.
I had speculated about Peter Mandelson leaving the Business Department, but instead he has been made First Secretary of State (a totally new appellation in British politics) and his Department is to take over much of the Department for Innovation, Universities and Skills (DIUS). The fact that Brown only created the DIUS two years ago and is now dismantling it is yet another example of his chronic indecision and revision.
In my earlier posting, I commented: “Additionally it is not out of the question that some MPs caught up in the expenses scandal may choose to step down now causing further by-elections.” So it has proved to be. Norwich North’s Labour MP Ian Gibson has resigned from Parliament as a protest at how he has been treated by the Labour NEC in respect of his expense claims. This will force a by-election to add to the one in Glasgow North-East occasioned by the resignation of the Speaker Michael Martin.
Now a key theme of my earlier posting was that there was a further ticking time bomb for Brown which had gone largely unnoticed by the political pundits: the proposed Second Reading of the Postal Services Bill which plans to bring about the part privatisation of Royal Mail. The Second Reading – which involves a vote on the Bill’s principles – was due to have been held on Tuesday. However – almost missed by the media – the debate has been postponed with no new date agreed.
This makes sense politically: in the current feverish circumstances, as well as Labour backbench opponents of the part privatisation, any Labour MP who wants to see Gordon Brown step down as Prime Minister would have been tempted to vote against the measure to provoke his resignation. However, in regulatory and business terms, there are strong reasons for wanting to see the remaining sections of the Postal Services Bill on the Statute Book before the summer recess – and time is running out …
One of my favourite sayings is: “It isn’t over till it’s over – and then it isn’t over”. Certainly the debate about Gordon Brown’s future as Prime Minister is far from over and Monday is another key day. We will have the European election results and a meeting of the Parliamentary Labour Party. My own judgement is that Brown’s days are numbered and I trust that he will recognise this sooner rather than later and help to affect a quick and smooth transfer of power to the new leader (hopefully Alan Johnson).
June 6th, 2009 at 11:37 pm
Roger
I would love to see AJ in the position – but not at this time and nobody else either.
If Brown goes the chattering classes will go on and on about how we have ‘another un elected Prime Minister’ except I cannot remember ever voting for a ‘Prime Minister’. A party, yes a ‘Prime Minister – No.
A fact that both the ‘chattering classes’ and ‘media’ have conveniently forgot to mention.
Unless somebody introduced it into all the three parties and I slept through it.
June 7th, 2009 at 10:44 am
Just a quick note that “First Secretary of State” is by no means a new invention. In the last couple of years of Prescott’s reign, he bore the title (as simply being Deputy PM doesn’t get one a salary). Before him, Heseltine held it.
See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Secretary_of_State
June 7th, 2009 at 11:19 am
Thanks for the clarification, Brian.