The American presidential election (85)
A week tomorrow, Americans go to the polls for a Presidential election – plus all the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate (including Joe Biden’s seat!) – in what seems to have been the longest and has certainly been the most exciting race that I can remember. Between now and 4 November, every opinion poll will be seized upon and analysed. It is likely that the national polls will show some fluctuation and overall some narrowing of Obama’s lead over McCain, but we shouldn’t pay too much attention to these polls. Why?
First, because these polls relate to how those who say they are likely to vote say how they are likely to vote – which is not the same as actually going to the polls and and actually voting for the candidate in question. More than in previous elections, there has been a record number of new registrations (especially by Democrats) and there is likely to be a record turnout (especially by young and black voters). Obama – the former community organiser – has a formidable organisation on the ground and this should make a crucial difference that might even mean his position is understated in the national polls.
Second, because the President is not chosen by a national vote of the people but by an Electoral College of the states. Each state is represented on the basis of a combination of the number of members in the Senate (two for each state regardless of size) and the number of members in the House of Representatives (roughly proportional to population). The states with the largest number of votes are California (55), Texas (34) and New York (31). The states with the smallest number of votes – there are six of them – have only three votes. The District of Columbia, which has no voting representation in Congress, has three electoral votes. In effect, therefore, the Presidential election is not one election but 51.
The total Electoral College vote is 538. This means that, to become President, a candidate has to win at least 270 electoral votes. The voting system awards the Electoral College votes from each state to delegates committed to vote for a certain candidate in a “winner take all” system, with the exception of Nebraska and Maine (which award their Electoral College votes according to Congressional Districts rather than for the state as a whole).
In practice, most states are firmly Democrat – for instance, California and New York – or firmly Republican – for instance, Texas and Tennessee. Therefore, candidates concentrate their appearances and resources on the so-called “battleground states”, those that might go to either party. The three largest battleground or swing states are Florida (27 votes), Pennsylvannia (21) and Ohio (20).
Now Obama is doing very well in all the battleground states and even encroaching into states that usually are reliable Republican causes. Check out this allocation of states to the candidates by CNN based on all the polls and other political intelligence. Now, if CNN is right, McCain could win all the states said to be safe for him, all the states said to be leaning to him and all the states said to be a toss-up and he would still lose the election.
So I might be influenced by my long-term enthusiasm for Obama and I might look silly after the election, but I reckon that Obama could win the national vote by around 5-7% and win the Electoral College by 60-70 votes.
October 27th, 2008 at 9:44 am
I wish I could be so confident Roger. I think the Bradley Effect will play a role. Lots of people still have ‘minor’ racist views. And whilst they might say they’ll vote democratic, when they get to the poll station and it’s only them and a piece of paper vote otherwise. This is the country where, in Kentucky, 20% of democratic primary voters wouldn’t vote for Obama because he was black. I dread to think about the non-democrats there!
As always enjoying the posts!
PS: where are you planning to visit on your next journey?
October 27th, 2008 at 5:36 pm
There has understandably been much talk of the Bradley effect but, as is made clear in this article by someone who worked on Bradley’s campaign in the election in question, it was more complicated than is represented.
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:31 pm
Roger
I believe you’ve got it right and we must all hope that’s how it turns out. I’m just back from Washington DC and as a Brit abroad I was overwhelmed by the enthusiasm and support for Obama. I appreciate that may be a view from the political hothouse but even over the river in Virginia it was hard to spot a McCain/Palin poster or bumper sticker. I know this doesn’t necessarily mean that much when it comes to next Tuesday but the level of democratic (both d and D) engagement is a sight to behold. As the self-styled mother of democracy, we’ve got something to learn.