The rise and rise of UKIP – and why it won’t last (2)
It’s less than two weeks since the UK Independence Party did so well in the English local council elections [see my comments here] and the British political political scene has gone crazy.
The Conservative Party is falling apart over the idea of a referendum on British membership of the European Union in 2017 and yet the negotiations promised by Prime Minster David Cameron have not even started and all the polling evidence is that understandably this issue is far from top of voters’ minds when they are facing a deep and prolonged economic recession.
This week, the splits in the Tory ranks will become especially manifest when there is a vote on an amendment to the Queen’s Speech seeking legislation now mandating a future referendum. There is no realistic possibility of such legislation reaching the statute book this side of a General Election and, even if such legislation were passed, it would probably have minimal impact on the Conservativews’ position in the polls.
Meanwhile, just to underline how British politics has gone into a spin, the latest opinion poll suggests that support for UKIP has soared from 9% to 18%. Clearly the publicity for UKIP and the aura of success has attracted a swath of new supporters – but it won’t last. Political parties build sustainable support by new personalties, new policies, improved organisation, and grass roots campaigning.
A doubling of support almost overnight is not sustainable. It is a bubble – and it will burst. Maybe not immediately. Maybe after some more madness and next year’s European elections when the proportional representation system of election will strongly favour UKIP.
Finally, ponder this thought. IF somehow UKIP was able to maintain a level of support of 18% and that support was spread evenly throughout England (they have very little support in Scotland and Wales and none in Northern Ireland) and IF the major parties performed as suggested in the latest poll, the result – thanks to our first past the post voting system – would according to one estimate be that the next parliament would end up with 228 Tory seats (down 79), 359 Labour (up 101, and enough for an overall majority of 68), 35 for the Lib Dems (implying 22 losses), and not a single seat for UKIP.
But none of this is going to happen.