- In the House of Commons “meaningful vote” on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, there is no majority for the deal.
- The Parliamentary Labour Party tables a vote of no confidence in the Government. It fails.
- The 1922 Committee tables a vote of no confidence in May as Conservative Party leader. It fails.
- May seeks to tweak elements of the deal with the European Commission. She achieves no substantive changes.
- A group of MPs puts forward a ‘Norway plus’ deal. The European Commission is not interested and no real progress is made.
- A group of MPs puts forward a ‘Canada plus’ deal. The European Commission is not interested and no real progress is made.
- The UK asks the other 27 Member States of the European Union for an extension to the Article 50 process to allow time for the holding a second referendum. A few extra months is granted.
- Parliament passes the necessary legislation for a second referendum. The only real debate is the choice to be presented on the ballot paper. The choice is Brexit on the terms negotiated by May or continued UK membership of the EU on current terms
- The Electoral Commission tightens up the rules on spending in the referendum.
- May campaigns hard for her deal. Corbyn campaigns much less hard for staying in the EU.
- The referendum campaign is a bitter and divisive one.
- Turnout is even higher than for the first referendum.
- The result of the second referendum is almost a mirror image of that of the first one: 53% to stay and 47% to leave.
- May resigns as leader of the Conservative Party. There is a battle for the soul of the party.
- Labour demands of the new Prime Minister that a General Election be called. There is no election.
- Corbyn resigns as leader of the Labour Party. There is a battle for the soul of the party.
This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 4th, 2018 at 9:22 am and is filed under British current affairs. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.
December 9th, 2018 at 1:17 pm
A Mexican standoff but with everyone pointing guns at their own heads.
December 9th, 2018 at 1:30 pm
That’s certainly one way of illustrating the fiasco, Philip. But, if my scenario comes to pass, we might just survive this political trauma.
December 9th, 2018 at 1:33 pm
Your predictions are reasonable, logical and sensible. In the current climate you’re probably wrong. I suggest the twist after the second referendum is either a repeat of De Gaulle’s “Non!”, or a demand for closer fiscal unity, ie drop the pound sterling and join the Euro.
December 10th, 2018 at 5:34 pm
Brits are lucky that a new vote is an option. Many in the US wish we had that ability now, not in two years.
December 12th, 2018 at 7:04 pm
1 to 4 correct so far.
TM was a quiet remainer…………… there are more ways to skin a cat………….
Outcome, we stay in.
Corbyn out……………yippee.