{"id":25002,"date":"2019-09-09T14:20:41","date_gmt":"2019-09-09T13:20:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/?p=25002"},"modified":"2019-09-09T14:22:10","modified_gmt":"2019-09-09T13:22:10","slug":"when-a-general-election-is-actually-held-could-labour-win-it","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/?p=25002","title":{"rendered":"When a general election is actually held, could Labour win it?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Most recent polls do not look good for Labour with Conservative leads of between 10% (Opinium) – 14% (YouGov). But there are many variables to consider and a major one is timing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

ComRes has done a survey<\/a> looking at voting intention before and after 31 October on the assumption that, before that date, there is still a prospect of the UK being out of the European Union by Halloween but, after that date, the UK is still in the EU and Boris Johnson has been shown to have failed to keep his promise.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the first scenario, the Conservatives have a (narrow) lead of 3% but, in the second scenario, Labour has a (equally narrow) lead of 2%. So the timing of the election is likely to be critical and you can see why the Opposition parties do not want an election until it is clear that Boris has failed to meet his objective of the UK leaving the EU by 31 October with or without a deal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

BUT: there are so many other pondorables to take into account:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will there be more resignations from the Government and the Conservative Party in Parliament?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can Labour sort out its policy on Brexit? Will it really seek to negotiate a better deal and then campaign against it in a second referendum?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Boris Johnson manage to fight an effective ‘people vs the parliament’ campaign?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will Jeremy Corbyn again prove to be a better election campaigner than parliamentary performer?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will tactical voting – between Conservative and Brexit party voters and between Labour and Lib Dem voters – have a significant impact?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Will non-Brexit issues – such as the Tory’ spending splurge or Labour’s renationalisation plans – have an impact?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In short, the outcome of the election is still very uncertain and it’s going to be a febrile and frenetic few months in British politics.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"