{"id":24096,"date":"2019-01-16T23:12:22","date_gmt":"2019-01-16T22:12:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/?p=24096"},"modified":"2019-01-17T00:47:03","modified_gmt":"2019-01-16T23:47:03","slug":"my-16-predictions-for-the-future-of-brexit-how-are-things-working-out","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/?p=24096","title":{"rendered":"My 16 predictions for the future of Brexit – how are things working out?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Six weeks ago, I was rash enough to make a blog posting in which I attempted to make 16 predictions for how the Brexit crisis would unfold. So, a month a half later, how are things working out?
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

So far, the first four of my predictions have come to pass (although not always in the sequence that I anticipated). Now let’s see how many of my other 12 predictions work out. Meanwhile, as a reminder, this is what I forecast and what has actually happened …<\/p>\n\n\n\n

************************************************************<\/p>\n\n\n\n

  1. IIn the House of Commons \u201cmeaningful vote\u201d on Theresa May\u2019s Brexit deal, there is no majority for the deal. CORRECT – On 15 January 2019, the deal was defeated by 432 votes to 202 – the largest ever Government defeat in history<\/strong><\/em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>
  2. The Parliamentary Labour Party tables a vote of no confidence in the Government. It fails. CORRECT – On 16 January 2019, the Government survived by 325 votes to 306<\/strong><\/em>.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>
  3. The 1922 Committee tables a vote of no confidence in May as Conservative Party leader. It fails.   CORRECT – On 12 December 2018, <\/strong><\/em>May won by 200 votes to 117.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>
  4. May seeks to tweak elements of the deal with the European Commission. She achieves no substantive changes. CORRECT – I thought this would happen after the “meaningful vote” but in fact it occurred before.<\/em><\/strong><\/li>
  5. A group of MPs puts forward a \u2018Norway plus\u2019 deal. The European Commission is not interested and no real progress is made.<\/li>
  6. A group of MPs  puts forward a \u2018Canada plus\u2019 deal. The European Commission is not interested and no real progress is made.<\/li>
  7. The UK asks the other 27 Member States of the European Union for an extension to the Article 50 process to allow time for the holding a second referendum. A few extra months is granted.<\/li>
  8. Parliament passes the necessary legislation for a second referendum. The only real debate is the choice to be presented on the ballot paper. The choice is Brexit on the terms negotiated by May or continued UK membership of the EU on current terms<\/li>
  9. The Electoral Commission tightens up the rules on spending in the referendum.<\/li>
  10. May campaigns hard for her deal.  Corbyn campaigns much less hard for staying in the EU.<\/li>
  11. The referendum campaign is a bitter and divisive one.<\/li>
  12. Turnout is even higher than for the first referendum.<\/li>
  13. The result of the second referendum is almost a mirror image of that of the first one: 53% to stay and 47% to leave.<\/li>
  14. May resigns as leader of the Conservative Party. There is a battle for the soul of the party.<\/li>
  15. Labour demands of the new Prime Minister that a General Election be called. There is no election.<\/li>
  16. Corbyn resigns as leader of the Labour Party. There is a battle for the soul of the party.<\/li><\/ol>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Six weeks ago, I was rash enough to make a blog posting in which I attempted to make 16 predictions for how the Brexit crisis would unfold. So, a month a half later, how are things working out? So far, the first four of my predictions have come to pass (although not always in the […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24096","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-british-current-affairs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24096","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24096"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24096\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24110,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24096\/revisions\/24110"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24096"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24096"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24096"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}