Nowhere are different theories being discussed more than in Moscow. See here an examination of four theories in the Russian newspaper “Izvestia”.<\/p>\n
\nIzvestia
\nDecember 1, 2006
\nLITVINENKO HAD BECOME DANGEROUS FOR BEREZOVSKY<\/b>
\nAnd three other theories about the mysterious events in London
\nFour theories about the Litvinenko poisoning
\nAuthor: Elena Ovcharenko, Vladimir Demchenko
\n[Police have reconstructed Alexander Litvinenko’s movements on
\nNovember 1. He went to see Boris Berezovsky; he bought some
\nnewspapers; he met with Andrei Lugovoi at the Millennium Hotel. He
\nmet with Mario Scaramella at a sushi bar. Then he visited a
\nsecurity firm – and that’s when he started feeling ill.]
\nMario Scaramella, the Italian who met with Alexander
\nLitvinenko on November 1 – the day the former KGB officer was
\npoisoned with polonium-210 – has revealed some details about the
\nmeeting. Scaramella’s words offer support for one of the theories
\nwe presented earlier: that Litvinenko was involved in the black
\nmarket for nuclear materials. But police investigators aren’t
\nrejecting some other theories either. Today we shall attempt to
\nlook at all of them.
\nScotland Yard detectives have some new questions for Boris
\nBerezovsky concerning the “Alexander Litvinenko death case.” They
\nare interested in learning why Litvinenko visited Berezovsky’s
\noffice on the morning of November 1 – before his meeting with
\nMario Scaramella. There is every reason to believe that at the
\ntime of that morning visit, the radioactive polonium-210 was
\neither in Berezovsky’s office or being carried by Litvinenko
\nhimself.
\nPolice have now reconstructed practically all of Litvinenko’s
\nmovements on that day. He went to see Berezovsky; he bought some
\nnewspapers in Piccadilly; he met with businessman Andrei Lugovoi
\nat the Millennium Hotel. Then he met with Scaramella at Itsu, a
\nJapanese restaurant. Then he visited a security firm – and that’s
\nwhen he started feeling ill.
\nTraces of polonium-210 have been found at all these locations
\n– but Berezovsky’s office was first on the list. Now the oligarch
\nwill be questioned again, and this questioning session is unlikely
\nto be an easy one for him.
\nScotland Yard’s professionals may soon determine exactly what
\nhappened in the mysterious story of Litvinenko’s death. Meanwhile,
\nall kinds of theories are still being considered.
\nFirst theory: Litvinenko was dealing in radioactive materials
\nWe looked at this theory in our last issue. Traces of
\npolonium-210 were left everywhere Litvinenko went on November 1 –
\nbut none of the people he had contact with were poisoned. This
\nsuggests that Litvinenko had the polonium on him. He was carrying
\nit around London and even showing it to some people, in an attempt
\nto sell it.
\nSome unexpected evidence in favor of this theory emerged
\nyesterday. Scaramella said that Litvinenko had told him, in
\ndetail, about participating in a number of operations aimed at
\nselling radioactive materials abroad. This allegedly started when
\nhe was still working for the Federal Security Service (FSB).
\nWhy did Litvinenko reveal this to Scaramella? According to
\ninitial reports, Scaramella brought Litvinenko some sort of
\ndocuments related to the murder of Anna Politkovskaya. However, it
\nsubsequently turned out that there weren’t any documents – only an
\ne-mail in which some Chechens and Russians threatened Scaramella.
\nSo he went to consult Litvinenko. Instead of advice, however, he
\ngot the story of Litvinenko acting as a courier for radioactive
\nisotopes.
\nMost likely, Scaramella will gradually remember some other
\ndetails of his meeting with Litvinenko. Perhaps the threats were
\nlinked to the black market for radioactive materials. Perhaps the
\nthreats came from people connected with Litvinenko, and Scaramella
\nhad some sort of contacts with potential polonium buyers, so
\nLitvinenko brought the polonium to the restaurant in order to show
\nit to Scaramella – and told the story of his glorious past as
\nproof.
\nIf this is the case, Scaramella was lucky. By the time he met
\nwith Litvinenko, radiation was leaking from the container of
\npolonium. This may be why Scaramella reacted as he did on learning
\nof Litvinenko’s death: he rushed from Italy to London, demanded
\nurgent medical tests on himself, and agreed to cooperate with
\nScotland Yard.
\nIt wouldn’t be surprising if Litvinenko took to dealing in
\nnuclear materials. As everyone knows, Berezovsky – who took
\nLitvinenko under his wing after the former officer fled Russia –
\ndoesn’t like to waste his money. He provided Litvinenko with a
\nsmall home on the outskirts of London and a modest income. This
\nwas probably payment for specific actions of some sort. But
\nLitvinenko was still short of money, and had to find another job
\non the side. Polonium-210 is a very expensive isotope, and there’s
\na lot of money to be made from it. It is sold openly in the United
\nStates, but only to laboratories and only in small doses – tens of
\nthousands of times less than the amount required to poison a human
\nbeing or the amount required for use in a nuclear reaction.
\nWe can’t rule out the possibility that Litvinenko’s
\nplutonium-dealing may have been carried out under Berezovsky’s
\ndirect supervision. Suffice it to recall that Litvinenko left his
\nfirst trace of polonium in Berezovsky’s office. In that case,
\nLitvinenko may have been only a courier delivering some dangerous
\ngoods. He may have gone abroad to bring back the polonium (surely
\nit’s no coincidence that one of the places he visited on November
\n1 was a security firm that provides security for trips abroad).
\nSecond theory: building a portable nuclear bomb for Chechen
\nguerrillas
\nEighteen months ago, Berezovsky was saying that the Chechen
\nguerrillas had a portable nuclear bomb. According to him, iall it
\nlacked was “a small component” to make it ready for use.
\nAllegedly, Berezovsky even reported this to FSB Director Nikolai
\nPatrushev at the time.
\nNow it may turn out that Berezovsky, who used to cooperate
\nwith Shamil Basayev and has provided a refuge for separatist envoy
\nAkhmed Zakayev, wasn’t bluffing about the bomb. And the minor
\ndetail that the terrorists needed in order to possess a functional
\nnuclear weapon may have been the polonium-210 that killed
\nLitvinenko. According to the experts we approached for comments,
\nthis isotope can be used in a neutron detonator for a nuclear
\nbomb. And we can’t rule out the possibility that Litvinenko may
\nhave been buying it, not selling it.
\nBut there’s also another scenario. If the bomb had been
\nassembled in an underground laboratory somewhere in London,
\nLitvinenko may have been its “curator” – and he may have been
\npoisoned due to some sort of accident or emergency situation. If
\nthat were the case, however, those who assembled the bomb would
\nhave been poisoned as well, and the presence of other victims
\nprobably couldn’t be concealed.
\nAt any rate, if the bomb theory is correct, Litvinenko’s
\ndeath was his final service to his motherland.
\nThird theory: Litvinenko was planning to betray Berezovsky
\nAnother theory is that Litvinenko was eliminated because he
\nposed a potential threat to his patron. Litvinenko knew about
\npractically all of Berezovsky’s activities over the past few
\nyears. In recent months, he had become Berezovsky’s eyes, ears,
\nand hands; practically all of Berezovsky’s contacts went through
\nLitvinenko. He could have been an invaluable source of information
\nfor the Prosecutor General’s Office, whihc is trying to get
\nBerezovsky extradited to Russia. What’s more, there was nothing to
\nprevent Litvinenko from returning to Russia; he wasn’t even on the
\nwanted list, he only had a suspended sentence. Of course,
\nLitvinenko had remained loyal to his boss for several years – but
\ntimes change.
\nIt’s an open secret that Berezovsky’s situation has become
\nsubstantially more difficult in the past few months. At a Moscow
\nconference, European Union law enforcement agencies were working
\non some new legislation in the area of extraditing criminals; a
\nProsecutor General’s Office delegation headed by Deputy Prosecutor
\nGeneral Alexander Zvyagintsev visited London and signed a
\ncooperation memorandum.
\nIn the meantime, it was reported that Litvinenko visited
\nMoscow secretly and gave evidence about the Politkovskaya murder.
\nThis allegation was reported in only one newspaper. The Prosecutor
\nGeneral’s Office denied it immediately, and all observers
\ndismissed it as crazy.
\nBut is that really true? Can we really rule out the
\npossibility that Litvinenko, sensing that his patron would soon be
\nextradited, may have been investigating options for his own return
\nto Russia? It’s unlikely that he visited Moscow, but can we rule
\nout the possibility that he had a meeting in London with someone
\nfrom the Prosecutor General’s Office delegation, and the newspaper
\nthat reported this simply mixed something up? Even the hint of
\nsuch contacts taking place would have sufficed to make Berezovsky
\nseriously alarmed, to put it mildly. If the chief witness to all
\nof Berezovsky’s turbulent activities had decided to talk, it would
\nhave meant disaster for the oligarch.
\nThink about where the first traces of polonium were found.
\nThink about the fact that Litvinenko also visited a security firm
\nthat day. Perhaps his conversation with Berezovsky that morning
\nturned unpleasant. Perhaps, after that conversation, Litvinenko
\nfeared for his life and tried to hire some bodyguards. But it was
\ntoo late.
\nRevenge by the special services
\nIt is said that the special services never forgive defectors.
\nWhat if they really were ordered to “get rid of the traitor”?
\nRemember the special operation that eliminated Zelimkhan
\nYandarbiev. He was killed, and then Moscow spent 11 months in
\ndifficult negotiations with Qatar to ensure that the convicted
\nRussian citizens were returned to Russia. Moreover, it is known
\nthat Russia went through diplomatic channels to involve the
\nleaders of several other countries with great influence on the
\nleader of Qatar. Naturally, after the Russian citizens were
\narrested, there was a worldwide outcry about a “freedom-fighter”
\nbeing killed. That’s an unpleasant effect. But these
\n“international excesses” were justified by the key point of the
\noperation: Yandarbiev was still and active participant in “the
\nterrorist leadership of Ickeria.” As Khattab was killed and
\nefforts to capture Aslan Maskhadov continued, there was an
\nincreasing likelihood of Yandarbiev eventually becoming the leader
\nof the Chechen separatists.
\nBut Litvinenko was a pawn. What’s more, he was a damaged
\npawn, long since taken out of play. He wasn’t really doing
\nanything. There was no reason for Moscow to get involved in an
\ninternational scandal for the sake of eliminating Litvinenko.
\nWhat’s more, London is also the location of Akhmed Zakayev – a far
\nmore substantial figure than Litvinenko – and other defectors who
\nhave done far more damage to Russia: Gordiyevsky and Rezun
\n(Suvorov).
\nBut maybe the act of revenge didn’t involve any orders from
\nthe top. It might have been organized by Litvinenko’s former
\nfellow officers – those he betrayed to British intelligence.
\nActually, Litvinenko really did do that. It’s standard practice
\namong the special services to spend several months questioning any
\ndefector in detail, obtaining the names and other details of all
\nhis colleagues throughout his period of training and active
\nservice. However, their names are then added to the blacklist of
\npeople denied entry to Britain or other European states with which
\nthe British intelligence services mainain close contact. So
\nthere’s practically no chance that one of them could have come
\nfrom Russia to London for “personal revenge” purposes. Even if
\nsome Russian officer with a grudge had made such an attempt, it
\nwould surely have been detected by British counter-intelligence;
\nthey might even have let him enter the country, but he would have
\nbeen strictly monitored, and Litvinenko would still be alive. Even
\nless likely is the scenario of some “acquaintance” contacting
\nLitvinenko and proposing to come to Britain and give him some
\ncompromising materials.
\nTranslated by Elena Leonova
\nSource: “David Johnson’s Russia List” (USA, Sunday 3 December)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
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