Some of my Labour-leaning friends cannot understand why Labour Party leader Ed Miliband has been so categorical in ruling out a coalition or even a deal with the Scottish National Party. They look at the polls and see the likelihood of Labour and SNP together winning a majority of seats and think that the arithmetic of an anti-Conservative bloc is obvious. If only politics were so simple …<\/p>\n
I can think of three reasons why Miliband has adopted his current stance in relation to working with the SNP:<\/p>\n
1) Labour in Scotland is desperate to keep the SNP at arm’s length. If a coalition was on the cards now, Scottish voters would see even less reason to stay with Labour rather than switch to SNP since the consequences for the British Government would be the same arithmetically. \u00a0Labour in Scotland wants to hold on to as many votes as possible (even if it loses most of its seats), so that hopefully Labour nationally can win not just the largest number of seats but also the largest number of votes which would give it more credibility in seeking to form a government. Also Labour in Scotland is looking a year down the line to the election to the Scottish Parliament when a different electoral system will enable it to win enough seats to be a credible opposition as long as it avoids melt-down now.<\/p>\n
2) Potential Labour voters in England are concerned that a Labour\/SNP Coalition Government would give the Scottish Nationalists a dangerous amount of political leverage. The Conservative Party posters of Alex Salmond picking the pocket of the Labour Prime Minister is a real fear. Floating voters feel that Scotland already gets a good deal economically from Westminster and that SNP in coalition would mean an even better deal. Many also fear the SNP position on Trident. And many are very worried that, giving the SNP too much leverage through a coalition or a deal, would mean another referendum on Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK.<\/p>\n
3) \u00a0Committed Labour voters in England are anxious about the diluting effect of any coalition or deal. The first coalition government since the Second World War has been an increasingly messy affair. Neither coalition partner was able to implement fully its manifesto and some treasured policies had to be abandoned. People voting Labour would like to feel that they will get what they vote for and, if they don’t, it will be because other parties voted against in open rather than one other party blocked the measure in the confines of a Whitehall meeting room.<\/p>\n
So what will happen? Depending on the actual numbers of seats won by each party – which is still highly uncertain – the incumbent Government – with Tories alone or Tories and Lib Dems – may try to stay in power but, either because they can do the arithmetic or because they are defeated in the Commons, Miliband is then given the chance to form a government.<\/p>\n
True to his word, it is a government which is not in coalition with the SNP and does not have a formal deal with the SNP (and probably the same applies to its position in relation to the Lib Dems). The minority Labour Government puts a Queen’s Speech to a Commons vote and defies the SNP to vote against it and bring down the Government. The SNP, with various oral reservations and qualifications, votes with Labour and then we get on to the normal business of Parliament which is considering Government Bills, most importantly the Finance Bill – except that this normal business will no longer be conducted in a normal manner.<\/p>\n
Miliband has been careful to use the words “coalition” and “deal”; he has not ruled out some sort of arrangement with the SNP which will probably involve informal discussions on a Bill-by-Bill basis and sometimes even a clause-by-clause basis. This means that the Leader of the House and the Chief Whip will have critical roles in the new Government and Parliament. It means that there will be understandings, misunderstandings, narrow votes, and sometimes defeats – and we will just have to get used to this. Occasional Government defeats will not be the end of the world and, under the terms of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, will not require another General Election.<\/p>\n
It may not mean a government for five years but it could well provide for several years of a government which, with political will, could be quite reforming. Political commentators will love it because Parliament will be endlessly uncertain and exciting. Many politicians and voters will hate it. But it’s called democracy. When the electorate has spoken, we all have to listen and act accordingly.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Some of my Labour-leaning friends cannot understand why Labour Party leader Ed Miliband has been so categorical in ruling out a coalition or even a deal with the Scottish National Party. They look at the polls and see the likelihood of Labour and SNP together winning a majority of seats and think that the arithmetic […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17214","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-british-current-affairs"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17214","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=17214"}],"version-history":[{"count":11,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17214\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17225,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17214\/revisions\/17225"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=17214"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=17214"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=17214"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}