{"id":15526,"date":"2014-09-10T10:24:40","date_gmt":"2014-09-10T09:24:40","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/?p=15526"},"modified":"2014-09-10T10:36:24","modified_gmt":"2014-09-10T09:36:24","slug":"whatever-the-scots-decide-in-the-referendum-on-independence-the-united-kingdom-will-never-be-the-same","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/?p=15526","title":{"rendered":"Whatever the Scots decide in the referendum on independence, the United Kingdom will never be the same"},"content":{"rendered":"

If the ‘yes’ vote wins, we will probably have immediate uncertainty on the currency and financial markets and 18 months of intense negotiation between the Scottish and UK governments and parliaments. The nature of the UK General Election in June 2015 would be totally transformed. Then, once the Labour Party loses its substantial share of the Scottish seats in the Westminster Parliament, it would find it hard to form a majority government. The “Guardian” today has attempted to answer some of the many questions<\/a> that are being asked about impact of independence.<\/p>\n

But the consequences could well go beyond the United Kingdom. An independent Scotland with currency problems and an application to join the European Union could unsettle the Eurozone, encourage European recession, and even encourage some other parts of other countries to renew their pressure for their own independence.<\/p>\n

If, on the other hand, the ‘no’ vote wins, there will still be considerable and unpredictable change. The three major political parties have promised that a ‘no’ to independence would be followed by an early increase in the powers of the Scottish Parliament. If the ‘no’ vote wins, it is likely to be by a small margin and the debate around full independence for Scotland will continue, as the debate on independence for Quebec continued after the failure of the first referendum there.<\/p>\n

With more power to Scotland and a continuation of the Scottish independence debate, the people of Wales and Northern Ireland would certainly want additional powers themselves. Then, inevitably, the major cities – and possibly some regions – of England would put a strong case for more powers.<\/p>\n

If further powers are to be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and possibly some English cities, this would require a significant reallocation of seats in the UK Parliaments as between the different parts of the UK. \u00a0This would have a major impact on the capacity of the Labour Party to win a majority of seats in the new UK House of Commons. We might even have a rethink about the composition and role of the currently absurd body known as the House of Lords.<\/p>\n

Whatever happens (and I hope the Scots vote ‘no’), the consequences will take generations to work through …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"