{"id":1166,"date":"2008-10-27T08:19:10","date_gmt":"2008-10-27T07:19:10","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/wordpress\/?p=1166"},"modified":"2008-10-27T08:19:10","modified_gmt":"2008-10-27T07:19:10","slug":"the-american-presidential-election-85","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.rogerdarlington.me.uk\/nighthawk\/?p=1166","title":{"rendered":"The American presidential election (85)"},"content":{"rendered":"

A week tomorrow, Americans go to the polls for a Presidential election – plus all the House of Representatives and a third of the Senate (including Joe Biden’s seat!) – in what seems to have been the longest and has certainly been the most exciting race that I can remember. Between now and 4 November, every opinion poll will be seized upon and analysed. It is likely that the national polls will show some fluctuation and overall some narrowing of Obama’s lead over McCain, but we shouldn’t pay too much attention to these polls. Why?
\nFirst, because these polls relate to how those who say they are likely to vote say how they are likely to vote – which is not the same as actually going to the polls and and actually voting for the candidate in question. More than in previous elections, there has been a record number of new registrations (especially by Democrats) and there is likely to be a record turnout (especially by young and black voters). Obama – the former community organiser – has a formidable organisation on the ground and this should make a crucial difference that might even mean his position is understated in the national polls.
\nSecond, because the President is not chosen by a national vote of the people but by an Electoral College of the states. Each state is represented on the basis of a combination of the number of members in the Senate (two for each state regardless of size) and the number of members in the House of Representatives (roughly proportional to population). The states with the largest number of votes are California (55), Texas (34) and New York (31). The states with the smallest number of votes – there are six of them – have only three votes. The District of Columbia, which has no voting representation in Congress, has three electoral votes. In effect, therefore, the Presidential election is not one election but 51.
\nThe total Electoral College vote is 538. This means that, to become President, a candidate has to win at least 270 electoral votes. The voting system awards the Electoral College votes from each state to delegates committed to vote for a certain candidate in a “winner take all” system, with the exception of Nebraska and Maine (which award their Electoral College votes according to Congressional Districts rather than for the state as a whole).
\nIn practice, most states are firmly Democrat – for instance, California and New York – or firmly Republican – for instance, Texas and Tennessee. Therefore, candidates concentrate their appearances and resources on the so-called “battleground states”, those that might go to either party. The three largest battleground or swing states are Florida (27 votes), Pennsylvannia (21) and Ohio (20).
\nNow Obama is doing very well in all the battleground states and even encroaching into states that usually are reliable Republican causes. Check out this allocation<\/a> of states to the candidates by CNN based on all the polls and other political intelligence. Now, if CNN is right, McCain could win all the states said to be safe for him, all the states said to be leaning to him and all the states said to be a toss-up and he would still lose the election.
\nSo I might be influenced by my long-term enthusiasm for Obama and I might look silly after the election, but I reckon that Obama could win the national vote by around 5-7% and win the Electoral College by 60-70 votes.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"