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November 30, 2008

Word of the day

As recorded in my previous posting, I attended a classical concert this weekend. Now the programme notes for Bruckner's Symphony No 4 concluded with a sentence containing a word with which I was unfamiliar:

"The final coda is one of the most awesome of all symphonic perorations, crowned by the same majestic horn call that first opened the work, exultantly crying out over the orchestra's surgingly refulgent textures."
The word that was new to me was 'refulgent'. According to the web site Answers.com, it means 'shining radiantly; resplendent'. So now we know. See if you can work the word into your conversation this week...

Mozart, Bruckner and Linz

My wife Vee and I used to go quite regularly to classical concerts but, over the years, we've fallen out of the habit. This weekend, however, we were persuaded by our friends Bob and Diana to join them at a concert at the Royal Festival Hall on London's South Bank. It was the Bavarian Radio Symphony Orchestra conducted by Mariss Jansons.

The programme consisted of two symphonies with a connection to the Austrian town of Linz. The first was Mozart's Symphony No 38 which apparently he wrote in just five days while stopping off to give a concert in Linz. The second was Symphony No 4 by Bruckner who spent five years as a choirboy and organist at St Florian which is near Linz.

I confess that I was unfamiliar with either work but it was an excellent evening - the first work mellifluous and the second majestic.

November 29, 2008

A sad metaphor for our consumerist times

At dawn this morning, a 34-year-old employee was trampled to death as sales-hungry shoppers rushed into a Wal-Mart store in New York.

More information here.

American and British political systems

Now that the dust has settled on the American presidential election (although the Electoral College does not actually vote until 15 December), I've pulled together some of my blog postings and expanded them a little to create a new web page on "Contrasts Between The American And British Political Systems".

Our new roof (5)

It's the weekend; the tilers aren't here; and, for once, there's none of the crashing and the banging.

Oh, heaven!

November 28, 2008

Mumbai attacks and the Net

We all know that the Internet has utterly transformed how news is now reported to the world. This is brought home to us especially when there is a big event that attracts the interest of people around the globe and developments are fast-moving. A classic example was the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami in south-east Asia - see here.

Another such case has been this week's terrible atrocities in the Indian city of Mumbai. An early examination of how information on the attacks made available on the Net was much quicker - but not always more accurate - than that of the conventional media can be found here. There is already a detailed page on Wikipedia - see here.

An idea for Christmas

An elderly father in Britain calls his son in Cape Town and says, 'Son, I hate to ruin your Christmas, but I have to tell you that your mother and I are divorcing; 35 years of misery is enough.'

'Dad, what are you talking about?' the son screamed.

'We can't stand the sight of each other any longer,' the old man says. 'We're sick of each other, and I'm sick of talking about this, so you call your sister in Australia and tell her.'

Frantic, the son called his sister, who exploded on the phone. 'Like heck they're getting divorced,' she shouted, 'I'll take care of this.'

She immediately called her dad and screamed down the line, 'You are NOT getting divorced! Don't you do a single thing until I get there. I'm calling my brother back and we'll both be there on Friday. Until then, don't do a thing. DO YOU HEAR ME?'

The elderly father hung up and then turned to his wife and said. 'It worked, they'll be here for Christmas and paying their own air fares.'

November 27, 2008

Our new roof (4)

It's making progress ...

November 26, 2008

Obama - the first Net president (2)

I did an earlier posting about how Barack Obama could take the Internet tools he used in his successful campaign into his Presidency so that his supporters continue to play a role.

As this "Newsweek" article puts it:

"Barack Obama is the first major politician who really "gets" the Internet. Sure, Howard Dean used the Web to raise money. But Obama used it to build an army. And now, that army of digital kids expects to stick around and help him govern."

Which countries will be hit hardest?

"The downturn is expected to be severe in economies most vulnerable to the financial crisis or to sharp house price falls. These include Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Luxembourg, Spain, Turkey and the UK."
In its half-yearly health check of global growth, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has stated that the UK economy will shrink by 1.1% in 2009.

Full OECD report here.

What's happening in Thailand?

A six-month campaign of protests against the Thai government has been led by a movement called PAD which stands for People's Alliance for Democracy. So how democratic is PAD?

The movement:

  • is a loose grouping of royalists, businessmen and the urban middle class
  • has called for parliament to be largely appointed
  • supported the military coup that ousted the former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawathra
  • wants to remove the current Prime Minister Somchai Wongsawat
  • has prevented the cabinet meeting
  • has forced the cancellation of a session of the parliament
  • has brought about the closure of the main international airport

Further information here.

November 25, 2008

Computing and blind persons

I recently had occasion to visit the London Head Office of the Royal National Institute for the Blind (RNIB) as a result of an invitation from a colleague of mine on the new Communications Consumer Panel (formerly known as the Ofcom Consumer Panel). Leen Petre works for the RNIB as Principal Manager: Media and Culture.

I was shown the use of two pieces of software in particular that enable a partially sighted or a blind person to make full use of a computer and the Web.

The first piece of software is called ZoomText and was demonstrated to me by Tim. This software enables large print users to magnify the contents of their computer screen and listen to it read out in synthetic speech at the same time. It costs £535.

The second piece of software is called JAWS and was demonstrated to me by Paul. This software works with a PC to provide access to software applications and the Internet by using a speech synthesiser and a sound card. The user can alter the tone and speed of the voice or choose the language of the speech. It costs £704.

I was impressed by how useful these software packages are but surprised at how much they cost - effectively doubling the cost of a PC to a partially sighted or blind person.

The RNIB sells a range of other ICT equipment specially designed for blind or partially sighted persons such as talking watches and mobiles with large keys. You can check out their shop here.

More generally, I have a short essay on my web site entitled "Access For All: Computing And Those With Special Needs".

November 24, 2008

This is my city ...

... by night.

November 21, 2008

How the world will change

On the eve of Barack Obama assuming the United States' presidency, we have the publication of the four yearly assessment of global trends prepared by the National Intelligence Council: "Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World".

On the position of the USA, the report's executive summary states:

"By 2025 the US will find itself as one of a number of important actors on the world stage, albeit still the most powerful one. Even in the military realm, where the US will continue to possess considerable advantages in 2025, advances by others in science and technology, expanded adoption of irregular warfare tactics by both state and nonstate actors, proliferation of long-range precision weapons, and growing use of cyber warfare attacks increasingly will constrict US freedom of action. A more constrained US role has implications for others and the likelihood of new agenda issues being tackled effectively.

Despite the recent rise in anti-Americanism, the US probably will continue to be seen as a much-needed regional balancer in the Middle East and Asia. The US will continue to be expected to play a significant role in using its military power tocounter global terrorism. On newer security issues like climate change, US leadership will be widely perceived as critical to leveraging competing and divisive views to find solutions. At the same time, the multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships. Developments in the rest of the world, including internal developments in a number of key states—particularly China and Russia—are also likely to be crucial determinants of US policy."

You can read the "Guardian"'s summary of the report here.

You can read the full 99-page report here.

Independence for Kurdistan?

When I take a cab, I always sit in the front and I always talk to the driver. Every driver has a story and, here in London, usually it is a story which begins in a foreign land.

This morning, I took a cab, engaged the driver in conversation, and asked him where he came from. His answer was "Kurdistan". Now there is no such country, so I asked him which part of Kurdistan and he told me "Iraq".

He then lambasted me with criticism of the US role in Iraq and the case for the Kurdish part of Iraq to be granted independence. He told me that the Kurds had been promised independence at the end of the First World War - which is true - and that the best thing for Iraq would be Kurdish independence - which is not true.

In fact, some two and a half years ago, I wrote about Kurdistan [see here] as one of the first entries (actually number 11) in my long-running series called Forgotten World (now with 150 entries).

November 20, 2008

Merry Christmas?!?

Today we received our first Christmas card. Can you believe it?

And it only came down the road from Hove ....

Ever heard of the Internet of things?

One way of looking at the evolution of the Internet is to see it in three stages: first, a fixed Net essentially connecting desktop PCs; second, a mobile Net connecting hand-held mobiles; third, what we call the Internet of things.

I've explained this next stage in my latest monthly column on Internet issues here.

November 19, 2008

Our new roof (3)

Bad news and good news on the roofing front.

The bad news is that we had so much rain yesterday that the roof sprung a new and more serious leak. Water burst through the spare bedroom ceiling and cascaded into the living room.

The good news is that, a week after the scaffolding went up, the tiling has actually begun. The two workers are a British guy called Ray and a Romanian guy that they all call Basil (actually his name is Vasil).

So there's tons of heavy banging going on, bits of ceiling coming away above my PC, and ceiling lights in the bathroom giving up, but we're making some progress ...

Brown bounces back

If a week is a long time in politics (as former Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson once famously declared), then - especially in current turbulent financial times - two months is almost an eternity. So, according to the pollster Ipsos/MORI, in September the Conservatives had a lead over Labour of 28% and today that lead is a mere 3%: 40% to 37% with 12% for the Lib Dems.

In fact, things were probably not quite that bad for Labour in September and they are probably not quite that good now. But the polls show that political opinion is very volatile, generally Brown's management of the financial crisis is winning him back support, and that - while Labour will still find it very tough to win a fourth term - there is a fighting chance of such a victory.

The immediate political battle is over how to respond to the recession. The Labour Government believes that we should spend our way out of recession by borrowing more as a nation, while the Conservatives believe that we should have tax cuts funded by spending reductions. This is why David Cameron has now abandoned his pledge to match Labour's spending plans. Upon the result of the argument rests a lot of jobs and a lot of votes.

November 18, 2008

"Yes we Cem"

He insists that he is not the German Barack Obama. But, in 1994, he became the first ethnic Turk to be elected to the German parliament. In 2004, he won a seat in the European Parliament. And this week he was elected co-leader of the German Green Party. He is Cem Özdemir.

More information here.

November 17, 2008

Which markets most disappoint the consumer?

It's National Consumer Week in the UK and the Government has launched a long-awaited survey on which markets are top and bottom when it comes to a fair deal for consumers. The measure used is something called the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI).

Overall, the most poorly rated markets were: Gas and electricity, Private pension plans, Home maintenance services, Petrol, diesel or oil, Private sector renting, and Estate agents and house purchasing services all failed to achieve a CCI score of more than 63 out of 100.

Also among those markets which consumers rated relatively poorly were Fixed line telephone services, Mortgages, Internet service providers, TV service providers, Vehicle repairs or servicing and Professional services – all with a CCI score of between 64 and 67 out of 100. Mobile phone network services, Hire purchase, loans or credit, Betting, gambling, competitions, prize draws or lotteries and Personal banking also failed to reach an overall CCI score of 70.

Extension to consumer role

It's taken a long time - the advertisements were placed in mid April - but the Ofcom Consumer Panel, now renamed the Communications Consumer Panel, has a new membership and, to coincide with the announcement of the new members today, there is a new name, a new logo and a new web site.

As a member of the Panel 1.0 who is one of only two members to join the Panel 2.0, I want to say thanks to all my former colleagues and welcome all my new colleagues. I joined the Panel at its inception in February 2004 and I'm delighted that I have been given a third term which will take me to February 2012.

You can read my introduction to the Communications Consumer Panel here.

November 16, 2008

Obama - the first Net president (1)

It is widely accepted that Barack Obama has made cleverer and more extensive use of the Internet than any previous politician in any country. This should not stop once he enters the Oval Office.

Obama was fighting not just to win an election but to change a nation and ultimately change the world. This requires more than legislation and government initiatives; it needs a grass-roots movement.

Obama has the contact details of over 3 million who donated to his campaign and over 10 million who expressed support for it. If he mobilises these people as president, then his occupancy of the White house could be truly transformational.

The Net will play a big part - as explained in this article - but, as in the election campaign so in his presidential term, the real force of his advocacy is not virtual but actual, not e-mails in cyberspace but activists in local communities.

November 15, 2008

Contrasting American and British politics

Two and a half months ago, I did a blog posting on the contrast between American and British politics. It attracted more comments that I usually obtain on this blog, so you might like to revisit it.

Now that the presidential election is over, this is a good time to make some further comments about the differences between the two political systems as it especially affects the transfer of power between leaders:

  1. In Britain, the changeover of Prime Ministers is virtually immediate - within hours of the election result, one person leaves 10 Downing Street and the successor enters it. In the United States, the transition period is two and half months.
  2. In Britain, the Prime Minister appoints around 100 members of the Government and members of the Cabinet each appoint a couple of Special Advisers, so the total number of political appointments is around 150. In the United States, the incoming President and his aides make a total of around 7,000 political appointments.
  3. In Britain, every Government Minister must be a member of one of the two Houses of Parliament and, if he or she is not already in the Parliament, he or she is made a peer. In the United States, no Cabinet member is allowed to be a member of the Congress because of the strict theory of the separation of the powers.
  4. In Britain, there is no produral method of challenging the appointment of a particular Minister although, in theory, the Opposition could move a vote of no confidence in the appropriate House of Parliament. In the United States, all the most senior appointments are subject to confirmation hearings and votes in the Senate.
  5. In Britain, the new Prime Minister sets out his or her vision for the country in a speech to the House of Commons on the subject of the Queen's Speech which opens the new session of Parliament. In the United States, the incoming President's inaugural address is an altogether more public and more prestigious affair.

November 14, 2008

POCA wait over

A month and a half ago, I blogged about the importance to the future of the Post Office network of the Government decision on the award of a contract to run a successor product to the current Post Office Card Account - the so-called POCA 2. The Government announced its decision yesterday and the contract has been retained by the Post Office. This is the right decision and good news for consumers - especially vulnerable consumers.

But it's surprising how little publicity this decision has obtained. For instance, the "Guardian" has a shortish piece on page 6. The "Daily Mirror" - which has campaigned on the subject - puts the story on pages 8-9. Why am I surprised by this?

First, the decision is of enormous importance to the future of the post office network. The closure of some 2,500 offices has attracted enormous amounts of publicity and protest, but the 'saving' of a similar number seems to be regarded as a relatively minor matter. I suppose the media prefer bad news to good news.

Second, the decision should have been made months ago, certainly before Parliament went into its summer recess. For months, Ministers have allowed stories to run suggesting that the contract would go to PayPoint. The long delay and uncertainty has been very damaging to the business prospects of sub-postmasters and to the political standing of the Government.

Third, the decision has finally been made by abandoning the tendering process that has been running for two years which begs the question of why Ministers started this process in the first place. We are told that the legal advice to Government has changed but this raises other questions about whether the original legal advice was sound and whether political decisions should be so beholden to changing legal advice.

This is not the end of the story.

First, the Government's decision might be challenged. PayPoint may seek judicial review and the two sets of legal advice to Government may have to be made public. Even if there is no legal challenge, one presumes that rival bidders will be entitled to compensation and the taxpayer is entitled to know the costs of this whole process.

Second, the award of the POCA 2 contract to the Post Office does not guarantee the maintenance of the present network of some 11,500. It merely avoids another major swath of closures. Post Office Limited and Government have to develop new profitable revenue streams and not simply save current ones. A couple of years ago, the Government set up an inter-departmental Cabinet Committee called Misc 33 to look at the right size of a sustainable network and a new, more far-reaching effort of that kind is now needed.

November 13, 2008

Now they tell me ...

For almost three years, I have worked part-time from 28-30 Grosvenor Gardens, near Victoria Station in central London, as a member of the Council of Postwatch, the watchdog for postal consumers. Last month, Postwatch closed down and was merged with two other consumer organisations to form Consumer Focus which is located in another building opposite the House of Fraser department store in Artillery Row.

Only now that I've left Grosvenor Gardens have I been told that the building was the main location for the shooting of the 1965 film "The Ipcress File". As a massive movie fan, I would have loved to have known this years ago and then I could have fantasized about being secret agent Harry Palmer as I went about my postal business.

Further information on the locations used here.

Our new roof (2)

On Monday, I blogged about the need for us to have a new roof. That morning, three guys came along in the pouring rain to erect all the scaffolding. This is what our place looks like now:


What about the workers?

Since then ... nothing.

November 12, 2008

Britain's new consumer champion

Consumer Focus - a merger of Postwatch, Energywatch and the National Consumer Council - only came into operation on 1 October and still has a lot of staff to recruit, but it is already winning respect and making an impact. As a member of the Board, this is very pleasing to me.

Yesterday I was at the House of Commons to see the CF Chairman Larry Whitty and Chief Executive Ed Mayo give a good account of the new organisation to the Business, Enterprise & Regulatory Reform Select Committee. Today the "Mirror" newspaper devoted a full page to an interview with Ed.

I spent this afternoon at the Consumer Focus Head Office in London and I am really enjoying working with an enthusiastic and talented team committed to winning a better deal for the British consumer.

My visits to the White House

Seeing pictures of President-Elect Barack Obama visiting the White House this week took me back to my own visits to this most iconic of political buildings. I believe that, since 9/11, the general public has not been ableto visit the White House but, before then, I had done so on three occasions.

The first time was on 19 September 1970 when I was aged 22 and a university student spending a three-month summer in the United States. After a very short wait, I was in the White House and noted in my diary: "Saw only a few of the 132 rooms - East Room, Green Room, Blue Room, Red Room, and State Dining Room".

The second time was on 23 August 1980 when I was aged 32 and on a telecommunications study visit to the USA. There was a system of timed ticket entry. It was a 20-minute self conducted tour and I saw the same rooms as on my previous visit but noted in my diary that there had been some renovation.

The third time was on 19 April 1984 when I was aged 35 with my wife and (almost) eight year old son. We queued for 50 minutes and spent 20 minutes on the official tour. I noted in my diary: "This time there was more security (there are barriers round to prevent suicide attacks) and the North Side is being cleaned".

I can't imagine that I'll ever be there inside the White House again.

24% and 75%

This week, George Bush finally broke all records with the most unfavourable ratings ever at 24% - lower than either Truman or Nixon.

At the same time, Barack Obama recorded the most favourable ratings ever for an incoming president at 75%.

Of course, these two phenomena are not unrelated. No doubt, Obama's ratings will fall when he enters the White House and starts to make the tough decisions. Probably, in a few years, there will be revisionist biographies of Bush claiming that his presidency was not quite so bad as his final ratings suggested.

But, in the meanwhile, never at any time in my lifetime has there been such a contrast between the standing of an outgoing and an incoming US president. Truly these are historic times.

November 11, 2008

Obama on his new Chief of Staff

Ever heard of Aleksandr Yakovlev?

No, neither had I until recently - but, perhaps second only to Mikhail Gorbachev, he was the man behind perestroika and glasnost. Many people in today's Russia revile him as the man who brought down the Soviet Empire. As Russia becomes increasingly autocratic and seeks to become a resurgent world power, perhaps we should remember Alexander Nikolaevich Yakovlev.

You can read about him here.

November 10, 2008

A new holy war

A year and a half ago, I had a week's holiday in Israel [see my account here] which including a visit to the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem. I wrote then:

"Now, in its own way, the Church of the Holy Sepulchre is as bizarre as the Western Wall. Un-Christian as this may seem, control of the church and access to various parts of it are vigorously – and sometimes violently – contested by no less than six Christian denominations. Since 1767, the primary custodians have been the Greek Orthodox, the Armenian Apostolic and the Roman Catholic churches and then, in the 19th century, the Coptic Orthodox, the Ethiopian Orthodox and the Syriac Orthodox churches acquired lesser responsibilities."
I gave three recent examples of violent conflict between the churches - and they are still at it as you can see here.

The world is grateful

On the morning after the US presidential election, I did a posting of just three words:

"Thank you, America"

It seems that I was not the only one as you'll see from this site.

Our new roof (1)

It started at 7.45 am this morning when the scaffolders arrived. I'm told that it will take three-four weeks - depending on the weather (it's raining now - poor guys).

I'm always so reluctant to initiate house repairs or improvements. It's not just the cost (which, in this case, is huge) - it's all the noise and dirt and disruption.

But the heavy rain of the last few weeks has revealed a serious leak in our back bedroom. It's clear that we do need a new roof and, while we're at it, we're going to insulate the loft and be more eco-friendly.

It should all be over by Christmas ...

November 09, 2008

America's 2nd president

Most people around the world are familiar with America's first president (George Washington) and third (Thomas Jefferson), but many have not heard of the second. He was John Adams who served two terms as Washington's Vice-President before himself becoming President for a single term (1797-1801). Later his son John Quincy Adams also became (the sixth) President (1825-1829).

I've just finished viewing a seven-part television series made by HBO on the life of John Adams. It has rightly been a great success, winning no less than 13 Emmys. The lead role is taken by Paul Giamatti who gives an outstanding performance among many fine portrayals.

Adams' death - shown in the final programme - was as remarkable as his life. On 4 July 1826, the 50th anniversary of the adoption of the Declaration of Independence, he died at his home in Quincy. Thomas Jefferson, his compatriot in their quest for independence, had died a few hours earlier on the very same day.

Ironically the whole series was brilliantly directed by a Briton: Tom Hooper [see his article]. He is the son of Richard Hooper whom I know mainly through his work as former Deputy Chairman of Ofcom.

What is striking about this life of one of America's 'Founding Fathers' is how resonant many of the themes are: the balance between the role of the federal government and the states, the extent to which the people can be trusted to guide politicians, the need to balance individual freedoms against the security needs of the nation, and the risk of entering an overseas war. Terrific stuff.

America's 43rd president

The same week that Americans saw the election of their 44th president witnessed the release of the latest Oliver Stone movie - a bio-pic about Bush Jr, the 43rd president, titled simply "W." [see my review here].

As the Bush presidency staggers to its much-welcomed end, I reproduce below some of the infamous Bushisms and a contemporary joke. You have to smile; otherwise you'd have to cry ...

Some words of wisdom you may have missed

"The vast majority of our imports come from outside the country. "
- George W. Bush

"If we don't succeed, we run the risk of failure."
- George W. Bush

"One word sums up probably the responsibility of any Governor, and that one word is ' to be prepared '."
- George W. Bush

"I have made good judgments in the past. I have made good judgments in the future. "
- George W. Bush

" The future will be better tomorrow."
- George W. Bush

" We're going to have the best educated American people in the world."
- George W. Bush

" I stand by all the misstatements that I've made."
- George W. Bush

"We have a firm commitment to NATO, we are a part of NATO. We have a firm commitment to Europe. We are a part of Europe."
- George W. Bush

" Public speaking is very easy."
- George W. Bush

"A low voter turnout is an indication of fewer people going to the polls."
- George W. Bush

"We are ready for any unforeseen event that may or may not occur. "
- George W. Bush

"For NASA, space is still a high priority."
- George W. Bush

"Quite frankly, teachers are the only profession that teach our children. "
- George W. Bush

"It isn't pollution that's harming the environment. It's the impurities in our air and water that are doing it."
- George W. Bush

" It's time for the human race to enter the solar system."
- George W. Bush

One sunny day in January 2009

One sunny day in January, 2009 an old man approached the White House from
Across Pennsylvania Avenue, where he'd been sitting on a park bench. He
spoke to the U.S. Marine standing guard and said, 'I would like to go in and
meet with President Bush.'

The Marine looked at the man and said, 'Sir, Mr. Bush is no longer president
and no longer resides here.'

The old man said, 'Okay', and walked away.

The following day, the same man approached the White House and said to the
same Marine, 'I would like to go ! in and meet with President Bush.'
The Marine again told the man, 'Sir, as I said yesterday, Mr. Bush is no longer
president and no longer resides here.'

The man thanked him and, again, just walked away.

The third day, the same man approached the White House and spoke to the
very same U.S. Marine, saying 'I would like to go in and meet with President
Bush.'
The Marine, understandably agitated at this point, looked at the man and said,
'Sir, this is the third day in a row you have been here asking to speak to Mr.
Bush. I've told you already that Mr. Bush is no longer the president and no
longer resides here. Don't you understand?'

The old man looked at the Marine and said, 'Oh, I understand. I just love
hearing it.'

The Marine snapped to attention, saluted, and said, 'See you tomorrow, Sir.'


____________________________________________________________________

"Shrapnel And Whizzbangs"

This is the title of a book written by my good friend Jeremy Mitchell who served with me on the Ofcom Consumer Panel. Jeremy was born in 1929 and his father George Oswald Mitchell (G.O.M.) was one of the few British soldiers to serve right through the First World War from its outbreak on 5 August 1914 to the Armistice on 11 November 1918, the 90th anniversary of which we mark this Remembrance Sunday.

"Shapnel And Whizzbangs" - subtitled "A tommy in the trenches 1914-18" - is Jeremy's graphic account of his father's war based on the trench diary and notes that G.O.M. wrote at the time.


George Oswald Mitchell as
Sergeant Royal Engineers Special Brigade

In a wonderful case of cross-generational co-operation, Jeremy's 12 year old grandson Eddie has created a web site for his grandfather's book about his great grandfather, so you can read a sample passage here and, if you wish, order the book here.

November 08, 2008

This week's other victory

In all the euphoria over the election of Barack Obama in the United States (and I share that excitement big time), we political observers in Britain should not overlook the significance of the Labour Party victory in Thursday's Glenrothes by-election.

Not only was the victory unexpected even by Labour itself, it is the first by-election since February 1997 when Labour has both increased its share of the vote(by 3%) and won the seat. Since taking office in May 1997, there have been only three other occasions when Labour has increased its share and on each of those occasions Labour came second.

The Scottish National Party will claim that they lost because Labour hit hard (and, in the SNP view, unfairly) on the single issue of the local council's introduction of large home care charges - and there may be something in that. But the significance of the setback to the SNP was underlined by Labour's victories in two local council by-elections the same day.

It was a personal triumph for Prime Minister Gordon Brown: he broke with convention by visiting the by-election twice and his wife Sarah made repeated visits. Brown's personal position had strengthened since the economic crisis and this by-election victory underlines and reinforces that.

It is tempting to try to make some comparison between the Obama and the Brown victories. No doubt the Conservatives will hail Obama's success as showing that voters want a fresh young face (and so they should vote for David Cameron). On the other hand, Obama and Brown have much more in common ideologically than Obama and Cameron. Obama and Brown both see government more as part of the solution rather than as simply the problem and they should work well together in tackling the international consequences of the global financial crisis.

It's been a good week for those on us on the Centre-Left.

November 07, 2008

Obama, the Transition and the Net

The Internet was a central tool in the election campaign run by Barack Obama and, only days into the crucial transition, he has launched a new web site which will announce all the new appointments and full details of the transition process.

We can expect a pro-science, pro-technology administration from President Obama and he has appointed Julius Genachowski to help him choose members of his new administration which could signal the prominence of high-tech policy.

Genachowski, who served at the Federal Communications Commission as chief counsel to former Chairman Reed Hundt, has already been active in Obama's campaign by advising him on technology policies as chairman of the president-elect's Technology and Innovation Plan. The Plan includes strong support for network neutrality and an aim “to get true broadband to every community in America”.

New blog category on US politics

As regular visitors to NightHawk will know, I've blogged a great deal about the primaries and presidential election in the United States over the last two years. Now the election is over, I won't stop blogging, especially since my long-favoured candidate Barack Obama is about to enter the White House.

Previously I've categorised my blog postings on American politics under the broad category of" World current affairs" as opposed to the category "British current affairs". However, I've decided now to create a new category called "US current affairs" which you'll see listed on the right.

Is political blogging too negative?

"Perhaps because of the nature of the technology, there is a tendency for political blogs to have a 'Samizdat' style. The most popular blogs are rightwing, ranging from the considered Tory views of Iain Dale, to the vicious nihilism of Guido Fawkes. Perhaps this is simply anti-establishment. Blogs have only existed under a Labour government. Perhaps if there was a Tory government, all the leading blogs would be left-of-centre?

But mostly, political blogs are written by people with disdain for the political system and politicians, who see their function as unearthing scandals, conspiracies and perceived hypocrisy. Until political blogging 'adds value' to our political culture, by allowing new voices, ideas and legitimate protest and challenge, and until the mainstream media reports politics in a calmer, more responsible manner, it will continue to fuel a culture of cynicism and despair."

This is a quote from a speech made this week to a Hansard Society conference by Hazel Blears, the Communities Secretary of State in the Cabinet. I think that there is something in what she says. NightHawk is not a political blog as such but it does address political issues at home and abroad and I always try to make my postings thoughtful and respectful of politicians.

November 05, 2008

The American presidential election (91)

Last night, I stayed up watching CNN until 3 am London time before I had to crash out. By then, I was sure that Barack Obama had won the American presidential election even though the network had still not called it for the Democratic candidate. This evening, together with my American friend Eric Lee, I was down at the central London restaurant Texas Embassy for a joyous celebration event organised by the Democrats Abroad UK.

Last night was not actually as thrilling as I expected because, unlike a British general election night, we did not have a lot of actual results with increasingly accurate forecasts of the final tally; instead we had various exit polls and very partial state results based on small portions of the total vote and the networks were so cautious that they didn't want to estimate the final outcome until I was fast asleep. Even now, I don't know the full result - we're still waiting for North Carolina (15 votes) and Missouri (11 votes).

But let me offer my first thoughts.

We have reached the end of the longest, the most expensive, the most exciting, and quite simply the most surprising US presidential race of my six decades. For a generation, we will compare future races to this one and describe them as'the most whatever' since the Obama victory.

In both the Democratic primaries and the general election, Barack Obama ran a near flawless campaign - always on message, positive and hopeful, immensely fluent, and utterly dignified. He had a brilliant organisation on the ground backed by thousands and thousands of enthusiastic volunteers, made very sophisticated use of the Net, and secured jaw-dropping amounts of money.

The result was an outstanding success. A week ago, I blogged "I reckon that Obama could win the national vote by around 5-7% and win the Electoral College by 60-70 votes". We don't know the final result yet, but it looks as if Obama took about 6% more of the national vote than John McCain so that I was spot on here. However, the oddities of the Electoral College and the brilliance of the Obama campaign mean that my guess on the College margin of victory was a serious underestimate. Obama won not just the large battleground states of Florida (27 votes), Pennsylvania (21) and Ohio (20), but garnered traditional Republican states too.

So the 44th President of the United States will be the first African-American in the Oval Office. The importance of this for Americans and the world can hardly be overstated. To every American who voted for Obama - yes you did and the world thanks you.

Now we have to have realistic expectations. As Obama put it in his amusing speech to the New York charity event, he was not born in a manger. The challenges he faces - at home and abroad - are huge and, talented and charismatic as he is, he can only achieve so much. But he has a landslide victory, solid majorities in both the House and the Senate, some outstanding advisers, and the goodwill of the world.

I'll be watching and I'll be blogging.

The American presidential election (90)


Thank you, America.

November 04, 2008

The American presidential election (89)

"The usage of the two campaign Web sites (www.johnmccain.com and www.barackobama.com) can be tracked like any other large Web site via services like Hitwise, Alexa, Compete and Google Trends, to name a few. Overall, traffic to the campaign Web sites shows very clear trends regardless of data source. Hitwise shows a consistent 2-to-1 advantage in unique site visitors for Obama's official campaign site in a head-to-head comparison, from August through early October -- with the exception of a significant narrowing of that gap around the week of the Republican National Convention."
Extract from this article on Network World.
"Using DomainTools to query for domains, we saw 2,357 domains for Obama and 1,431 domains for McCain. When we stemmed the query to domains just having either "Obama" or "McCain" included in them, we saw 5,378 for McCain and 11,089 for Obama."
.Extract from this article in the "New York Times".

So, however, you measure it Net traffic favours Obama. Now let's see if the voters do. Less than one hour before the first polls close ...

November 03, 2008

The American presidential election (88)

I first blogged about Barack Obama on 12 April 2004 [see that posting here]. I blogged 11 times on the Illinois Senate race won by Obama on 4 November 2004. In my last posting on the election, I wrote:

"I was delighted to see Barack Obama become the junior senator for Illinois and the only black member of the new Senate. This blog has been tracking his progress for many months. He is an able and inspiring politician who is destined to go far and maybe even as far as the White House one day."
On 17 December 2006, I did a posting in which I opined as follows:
"In an article in today's "Observer" newspaper, reference is made to Maureen Dowd, a "New York Times" columnist, who has dubbed the possible battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama as 'Hillzilla vs Obambi', implying that the newcomer will be crushed by Clinton's experience and money. Don't you believe it. There is a desperate desire in the USA for an exciting new face and right now Obama does not need money to win publicity."
Since Obama declared his candidacy, I've followed him every step of the way and blogged about him every step of the way, so that this posting is my 88th on the American presidential election. I've read both his books: "Dreams From My Father" [my review here] and "The Audacity Of Hope" [my review here].

So I guess you could say that I'm fan of Barack Obama. Tomorrow I expect him to be elected the President of the United States and, starting on 20 January 2009, I expect him to become one of the finest presidents in American history - a man who sees the world differently and a man who is seen differently by the world, a figure of truly global and historic importance, both inspirational and transformational. He will make mistakes, he will disappoint us, but his heart is true and his mind is sharp and he will be in the White House for the next eight years and in the history books for ever.

The world is watching.

November 01, 2008

What is a quantum of solace?

I'm off this evening to see the new James Bond film. But just what exactly is a "Quantum Of Solace"?

As a teenager in the 1960s when the Bond movies first appeared, I read all 14 of Ian Fleming's 007 books and still have copies on my shelves. Two of the books were in fact collections of short stories. One - "For Your Eyes Only" - titled the third of the five stories "Quantum Of Solace".

The whole story is an after dinner conversation between the Governor of the Bahamas and James Bond in which the former narrates the experience of a man betrayed by his wife.

The Governor opines:

""I've seen flagrant infidelities patched up. I've seen crimes and even murder forgiven by the other party, let alone bankruptcy and every other form of social crime. Incurable disease, blindness, disaster - all these can be overcome. But never the death of common humanity in one of the partners. I've thought about this and I've invented a rather high sounding title for this basic factor in human relations.I have called it the Law of the Quantum of Solace."
Bond responds:
"Quantum of Solace - the amount of comfort. Yes, I suppose you could say that all love and friendship is based in the end on that. Human beings are very insecure. When the other person not only makes you feel insecure but actually seems to want to destroy you, it's obviously the end. The Quantum of Solace stands at zero."
In fact, the story is based on an actual case and reflects Fleming's own marital difficulties at the time of his writing the story, as explained by Andrew Lycett here.

Footnote (2/11/08): I've now seen the film and reviewed it here.