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September 30, 2008

The American presidential election (70)

If this year's presidential race is as close as that in 2000, it could all come down to the Jewish vote in Florida - in which case, here's some advice for the young relatives of retired Jews in that state:


The Great Schlep from The Great Schlep on Vimeo.

PS Happy Jewish New Year to all my good Jewish friends.

Last post for Postwatch (3)

Today is the last day of existence for the consumer watchdog for postal services Postwatch.

As Chair of the Greater London region for the past two and a half years, I decided to go out with a bang.

Footnote: When I wrote this posting this morning, I thought that the "Telegraph" was the only newspaper to use our media release, but so far I've discovered four other newspapers which have picked it up. Since the media is so vicarious, this led the BBC to get in on the act and, in the course of the day, I did three interviews with them: one live television, another recorded television, and a third live radio. This means that, in my time at Postwatch (which ends today), I've done a total of 66 radio and television interviews.

September 29, 2008

The American presidential election (69)

I know that there's a ton of media coverage about the US Presidential election and that that I've written constantly about it on NightHawk but, if you only read one article about the contest, make sure it's this one.

September 28, 2008

Jews in wartime Slovakia

One of my closest friends - a Jewish man from Slovakia - is involved in a project describing the experience of another Jewish Slovak man discovering how his father died in the Second World War and the implications of this story for the present time. My friend’s translation agency translated the project from Slovak to English and his family knew the author's family.

Fedor Gal was born in the concentration camp at Terezin north of Prague which I once visited with another dear friend, a Czech Jew whose mother had been imprisoned there. By the time of his birth, his father had been shot on a death march from Sachsenhausen to Schwerin. It is a moving story that you can learn about here.

September 27, 2008

Congratulations to Maria and Angela

BBC online today has a news item on the civil partnership between Treasury Minister Angela Eagle and her partner of 18 years Maria Exall. Angela is the only openly gay woman in the House of Commons and Maria is a BT engineer and a member of the Executive of the Communication Workers Union. When I worked at the CWU, I knew and respected Maria and I'm delighted to see her and Angela so happy and so united.

The human cost of China's economic miracle

A large part of China's remarkable economic development has been achieved at the expense of the basic rights of millions of former state-owned enterprise workers, states a new report released by the Hong Kong-based China Labour Bulletin and Canada's International Centre for Human Rights and Democratic Development, commonly known as Rights & Democracy.

"No Way Out: Worker Activism in China's State-Owned Enterprise Reforms" is based on five years of research. It draws extensively on China Labour Bulletin's litigation in defence of worker's rights.

The publication studies the many ways the restructuring and privatisation of China's state-owned enterprises (SOEs) in the last 20 years have violated the human rights of the workers laid-off in the process. Violations documented include the systematic exclusion of former SOE workers from official channels of redress, criminalisation of labour protests, and the denial of workers' rights to social security, to an adequate standard of living, to freedom of association and to freedom from arbitrary detention.

You can access the report here.

The American presidential election (68)

The first of the four debates between the US presidential and vice-presidential candidates was held at 2 am British time, so we recorded it from CNN and watched it over breakfast this morning.

Here in the UK, we have nothing like these gladiatorial televised contests but, if we did, the moderator would have been sharper and more interventionist than the PBS guy.

I thought that Barack Obama was the more assured, confident and fluent, but John McCain scored the cruelest blow with his joke about the US and Iranian presidents sitting down to discuss Israel. I felt that Obama was a lot stronger in the early discussion of the financial crisis, but that McCain was a bit more heavyweight in the foreign affairs section later on.

Both candidates did well and the debate was high quality but, although I may be biased, I believe that Obama was the winner. This is the outcome suggested by the earliest poll. The time spent preparing for these debates, however, is exceeded only by the time spent spinning them as explained in this article.

September 26, 2008

Last post for Postwatch (2)

Effectively Postwatch - the watchdog for postal consumers - ended today after almost eight years of operation. Technically the organisation will be in existence Monday and Tuesday, but nobody will be working, since all the IT equipment and office furniture will be on the move so that, on Wednesday, Consumer Focus - a merger of Postwatch, Energywatch and the National Consumer Council - can come into effect. As I'm on the Board of Consumer Focus, I've very involved in the creation of the new organisation.

For the past two and a half years, I've been Chair of the Greater London region of Postwatch and this morning I chaired my last meeting of the Committee before we all went to a restaurant for a farewell lunch and presentation of small mementos. Today has been typical of the last month for me; indeed, in the last three weeks, literally there has not been a morning or an afternoon when I've not had a meeting or event, largely because of all the extra activity around the closing down of Postwatch and the opening up of Consumer Focus.

In a couple of weeks, my life should become less hectic - and then I have to think about whether I should seek another appointment to replace (partially) the time commitment of Postwatch. Then, before you know it, it'll be Christmas! Remember to post early ...

September 25, 2008

The American presidential election (67)

"The West Wing" was my all-time favourite television programme and the election battle between a minority Democratic candidate Matt Santos and a maverick Republican candidate Arnie Vinick beautifully anticipated the real-life contest between Barack Obama and John McCain.

Jeb Bartlet was the best President the US never had and hopefully Barack Obama will be one of the best Presidents America ever had. Suppose the two were to meet now? What would Jeb say to Barack? Speculate no more - it's all here.

September 24, 2008

The American presidential election (66)

I've always said that, if the world could vote in the US Presidential election, it would choose Barack Obama. Now "The Economist" magazine is running a world-wide on-line poll.

Votes are cast on a country-wide level. Each country is assigned a number of votes according to the size of its population ( "electoral-college votes" on the model of America's actual electoral-college system). Then all the countries' votes are tallied, to determine each candidate's worldwide total. You can see at a glance which countries are pro-Obama or pro-McCain, along with their respective vote percentages. The candidate with the most electoral-college votes will win the worldwide election.

So far, Obama is running away with it as you'll see here.

September 23, 2008

The speech of his life

They say that today Gordon Brown has to make "the speech of his life" to the Labour Party Conference in Manchester. Actually, I don't think he needs to - he's safe for a few weeks. And I don't think he will - he's actually not that great a speaker.

I wouldn't presume to tell him what to say but, style is as important as content, and if he wants some tips on delivery he could do worse than check out my advice on "How To Make A Good Speech".

September 22, 2008

Last post for Postwatch (1)

Postwatch - the watchdog for postal consumers - was created almost eight years ago, but it closes next week when it merges with two other consumer bodies - Energywatch and the National Consumer Council - to form Consumer Focus.

For the past two and a half years, I've been the Chair of the Greater London Region of Postwatch and sat on the Council of the organisation. Today I took the London team out for a farewell lunch and tomorrow the Council has its last meeting and closing dinner.

For me, it won't be the end of involvement in postal services because I sit on the Board of Consumer Focus. The Board has been meeting monthly since January but the organisation only comes into force on 1 October.

I have to say that the closing down of Postwatch and the opening up of Consumer Focus has created so many extra meetings for me that this month I have literally been working full-time. I hope that, over the next month or two, I can do a few more personal things like read a book or two and up-date some pages on my web site. After all, I am supposed to be retired!

The ToUChstone blog

The ToUCstone blog is a new on-line forum for policy people at the Trades Union Congress (TUC). The organisation has some really excellent people covering different policy areas, but you only tend to hear from them whenever they've finished a huge new report, which isn't so often, so they've created a blog where they can put their comments on current affairs.

Check it out here.

September 21, 2008

Earth from the Air

Today Vee and I drove over to Oxford to see our dear Chinese friends Hua & Zhihao (and their new teenage lodger Jiayu). They live close to the city centre so, after a home-made Chinese lunch, we walked around to Oxford Castle where we found a photographic exhibition called "Earth from the Air".

Now, five years ago, I saw this exhibition at the Natural History Museum in London and I blogged about it here. Since then, the photographs have been all around the country and the Oxford exhibition opened this week and will run to January 2009.

The work consists of some 120 pictures shot by the French photographer Yann Arthus-Bertrand. They are a stunning collection of photos and present a powerful ecological message. The exhibition is organised by wecommunicat8 and I spoke to Chris Bridge who runs the company and has great enthusiasm for both the photographs and their message.

Ever heard of a MacGuffin?

I count myself as something of a film fan, but I confess that i hadn't heard of a particular cinematic term until it was used by my erudite Postwatch colleague Howard Webber in his speech to a conference this week. The term is "MacGuffin".

The word refers to "a plot device that motivates the characters or advances the story, but the details of which are of little or no importance otherwise". You can find some discussion and examples here.

September 20, 2008

Why are the markets in a such a mess? (2)

At the end of the most tumultuous week on capital markets since the Wall Street Crash of 1929, there is a sense of utter bewilderment - and powerless - from ordinary citizens. Is it possible to give a short and layperson's explanation of why all this has happened?

It all started about a decade ago with the development of many of the credit derivatives that were intended to remove risk from the balance sheets of banks and mortgage companies making loans to those least likely to be able to pay them (the so-called sub-prime market). The idea was to separate the default risk on loans from the loans themselves. The risk would be moved into an off-balance sheet device.

The banks argued that, by trading such credit derivatives, they had spread their risk elsewhere and therefore needed lower reserves to protect against loan defaults. Regulators in the US and the UK allowed this and the banks loaned ever more. It was a huge success and the market for credit derivatives grew rapidly. However, one of the fall-outs from the current crisis is the call that banks should carry their own risk.

It's like I wrote in my earlier posting: it's all down to derivatives and deregulation.

So, who's to blame? At the end of this feature in today's "Guardian", no less than 14 villains are named. They include the Bush administration and the Brown government who may have steadied the markets by this weekend but who got us into this mess in the first place.

Both the sense that a financial crisis is not the time to change leader and some uncharacteristic decisiveness by Brown this week suggest that he'll get through the Labour Party Conference without serious challenge - but I still feel that his resignation is simply a matter of time.

September 18, 2008

The American presidential election (65)

An American friend of mine is a full-time worker in the Barack Obama election campaign. He's just drawn my attention to this video from the campaign manager David Plouffe which shows why Obama's position is stronger than the overall polls are suggesting:


"From War To Windrush"

This week, I had a meeting at the postal regulator Postcomm in my cpacity as a member of the Council ofthe postal consumer watchdog Postwatch. I had some time to spare and, since Postcomm is located close to the Imperial War Museum, I called into the museum and viewed one of ts current temporary exhibitions.

The exhibition is called "From War To Windrush". It tells the personal stories of the involvement of black men and women from the West Indies and Britain in the First and Second World Wars.

The "Empire Windrush" is the ship that brought to Britain the first large-scale group of black immigrants. It docked on 22 June 1948 - the week of my birth.

September 17, 2008

Visit to Number 10

I had occasion to visit 10 Downing Street today. Now, over the past 35 years, I must have been there around 20 times - but only when the office has been occupied by a Labour Prime Minister: Harold Wilson, Jim Callaghan, Tony Blair and (for the first time today) Gordon Brown.

However, I could not help wondering today whether Brown will be at No 10 much longer. Once Labour Party delegates gather at the Annual Conference this weekend in Manchester, who knows what will happen? Last year, a collective mania hit the delegates as speculation over a sudden General Election became frenzied. This year, the comrades may be calling for a different kind of election.

Anniversary of the US Constitution

As we watch the blood sport that is the American presidential election, let us mark today the anniversary of the Constitution under which the election is being held.

The United States Constitution was adopted on 17 September 1787, by the Constitutional Convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and later ratified by conventions in each state in the name of "The People". It has since been amended twenty-seven times, the first ten amendments being known as the Bill of Rights.

You can read more about the US Constitution here and I have written "A Short Guide To The American Political System" here.

September 16, 2008

Why are the markets in a such a mess? (1)

"The collapse of Lehman Brothers, the swallowing up of Merrill Lynch, the threat to the world's biggest insurance company, AIG, and the nationalisation of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, together with Northern Rock, herald the end of the free-wheeling deregulatory era of finance capitalism that lasted from the early 1980s to 200."
Quote from a letter from Michael Meacher MP
"The way things stand, it is now a question of whether there is a complete meltdown of the financial system, with institutions crashing like ninepins, or whether a severe rationing of credit over a prolonged period leads to falling house prices, weaker consumer spending, lower investment and rising unemployment. This is without doubt the most serious financial shock since 1929, and while talk of a 1930s-style depression is still conjecture, so are the predictions that failing banks and a bankrupt financial system will have minimal impact on the 'real economy'".
Quote from an article by Larry Elliott

So why have the markets gone mad? It's obviously an over-simplification but two key factors are the two Ds:

  1. Derivatives - the bundling and onward sale of financial risks which investor Warren Buffett has called "financial weapons of mass destruction"
  2. Deregulation - the belief that the markets can be trusted to be responsible and self-regulating
What we need now are:
  • liabilities to be balanced by adequate assets
  • risks to be balanced by effective regulation
  • separation of retail banks and investment banks
  • curbing of irrational exuberance and excessive greed
In short, the markets need to get rational and responsible which a lot to ask of capitalism.

September 14, 2008

Should humanism have equal status to faiths?

This seems like a good question to pose on a Sunday in a country that still professes to be largely Christian. I think that humanism should be given equal weight in schools to the various religious faiths and there is currently an argument on precisely this subject.

September 13, 2008

Fun at the festival

For the next few days, Vee and I are hosting a visit by a couple of her relatives from the Czech Republic (Vee is half Czech on her father's side). The problem is that these relatives don't speak any English and the little Czech we know we learned 20 years ago when the country was still Czechoslovakia and Communist.

So we needed some visual entertainment and we found it in buckets down at the Thames Festival. There was an incredible variety of ethnic food outlets, craft stalls and street entertainers. And, for once, the weather was fine.

We bought three lovely pieces of ceramics from a company called Pama Forza which is Palestinian-owned and based in Jerusalem.

Our son Richard and his wife Emily live close to London's South Bank, so we though we'd call them on the mobile and see if they were around. We stopped to make the call, looked up, and there they were - how cool is that?

September 12, 2008

Special virus alert

Subj: VIRUS ALERT Status: PUBLIC MESSAGE

Warning: There's a new virus on the loose that's worse than anything I've seen before! It gets in through the power line, riding on the powerline 60 Hz subcarrier. It works by changing the serial port pinouts, and by reversing the direction one's disks spin. Over 300,000 systems have been hit by it in Murphy, West Dakota, alone! And that's just in the last 12 minutes.

It attacks DOS, Unix, TOPS-20, Apple-II, VMS, MVS, Multics, Mac, RSX-11, ITS, TRS-80, and VHS systems.

To prevent the spread of the worm:

1) Don't use the powerline.

2) Don't use batteries either, since there are rumours that this virus has invaded most major battery plants, and is infecting the positive poles of the batteries. (You might try hooking up just the negative pole.)

3) Don't upload or delete or download files.

4) Don't store files on floppy disks or hard disks.

5) Don't read messages. No, not even this one!

6) Don't use serial ports, toasters, modems, or phone lines.

7) Don't use keyboards, screens, electric toothbrushes, or printers.

8) Don't use switches, CPUs, memories, microprocessors, or mainframes.

9) Don't use electric lights, electric or gas heat, or air conditioning, running water, vibrators, writing, fire, clothing, or the wheel.

I'm sure if we are all careful to follow these 9 easy steps, this virus can be eradicated, and the precious electronic fluids of our computers can be kept pure.

September 11, 2008

Too little too late on fuel poverty

At last the Government has published its package of measures to address the rapidly rising issue of fuel poverty. BCC online has this summary. Is it enough?

The consumer watchdog Energywatch issued a statement insisting that:

"The lack of political will to tackle fuel poverty is not just disappointing, it approaches negligence. While Government has now woken up to the scale of the challenge and is becoming alert to the need for some action; the sense of urgency is lacking. The elements that are sensible and welcome are sadly overshadowed by what is lacking.”
Sadly the Government's package does not provide enough immediate relief to those facing fuel poverty this winter; neither does it address the fundamental issue of a non-competitive energy industry in the UK.

Winston Churchill travelling fellowships

In 1980, I won a Travelling Fellowship from the Winston Churchill Memorial Trust to visit the USA for five weeks and study that country's telecommunications system.

The Trust is still awarding fellowships and has just advertised the categories for 2008. The closing date for applications is 14 October 2008.

More information here.

September 10, 2008

The American presidential election (64)

In an earlier posting I commented that:" if the world citizenry was voting in this election, Obama would win by a landslide".

My judgement was confirmed by the news today that a BBC World Service poll found that Obama was favoured by a four-to-one margin across the 22,500 people polled in 22 countries.

I agree with the column by Jonathan Freedland in the "Guardian" today:

"Obama has stirred an excitement around the globe unmatched by any American politician in living memory. Polling in Germany, France, Britain and Russia shows that Obama would win by whopping majorities, with the pattern repeated in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America. If November 4 were a global ballot, Obama would win it handsomely. If the free world could choose its leader, it would be Barack Obama."
"For America to make a decision as grave as this one - while the planet boils and with the US fighting two wars - on the trivial basis that a hockey mom is likable and seems down to earth, would be to convey a lack of seriousness, a fleeing from reality, that does indeed suggest a nation in, to quote Weisberg, "historical decline". Let's not forget, McCain's campaign manager boasts that this election is "not about the issues.""
The problem is that most Americans have never left North America and do not care what non-Americans think of their President or his foreign policy. Indeed some of them see Obama's understanding of other countries as elitist and his popularity in those other countries as celebrity. If Obama is to win - as he must - it will be on the basis of domestic perceptions of him.

"The Bleeding Heart"

"Lady Elizabeth Hatton was the toast of 17th Century London society. The widowed daughter-in-law of the famous merchant Sir Christopher Hatton (one-time consort of Queen Elizabeth 1), Lady Elizabeth was young, beautiful and very wealthy. Her suitors were many and varied, and included a leading London Bishop and a prominent European Ambassador. Invitations to her soirees in Hatton Garden were much sought after.

Her Annual Winter Ball, on January 26, 1662, was one of the highlights of the London social season. Halfway through the evening's festivities, the doors to Lady Hatton's grand ballroom were flung open. In strode a swarthy gentleman, slightly hunched of shoulder, with a clawed right hand. He took her by the hand, danced her once around the room and out through the double doors into the garden.

A buzz of gossip arose. Would Lady Elizabeth and the European Ambassador (for it was he) kiss and make up, or would she return alone? Neither was to be. The next morning her body was found in the cobblestone courtyard – torn limb from limb, with her heart still pumping blood onto the cobblestones. And from thenceforth the yard was to be known as The Bleeding Heart Yard."

And why do I reproduce this graphic tale? It's because today, for professional reasons, I had lunch in the wonderfully-named "Bleeding Heart Restaurant" in an unfamiliar corner of historic London. It's French place and my lamb was so lightly-done French-style that there was a fair bit of blood on show.

Will the world end today?

Now why would i ask that. Well, today, the Large Hadron Collider in Geneva will be switched on.

Curving round a vast subterranean chamber, the machine, some 27km in circumference, is the world's largest particle accelerator. Once it is switched on, it will fire beams of hadron particles in opposite directions at 99.9999991% of the speed of light, recreating the conditions that existed moments after the big bang.

Among other things, scientists hope that the collisions will produce the Higgs boson - a particle key to unlocking the secrets of the universe's creation.

Now some people - such as German chemistry professor Otto Rössler of the University of Tübingen - believe that the LHC could create a black hole that will devour the entire earth. If he's right, this blog won't exist shortly but then neither will you.

On the other hand, Professor Llewellyn Smith has assured Radio 4's "Today" programme that the LHC - designed to help solve fundamental questions about the structure of matter and, hopefully, arrive at a "theory of everything" - is completely safe and will not be doing anything that has not happened "100,000 times over" in nature since the earth has existed.

Let's see who's right. Oh, that's it - if Otto Rössler is correct, he won't be around to say "I told you so" and we won't be here to say "We should have listened to you". If the LHC does not destroy all (and I'm betting it won't), let's hope that it makes some exciting discoveries which aid our understanding of our universe.

September 09, 2008

Farewell to the NCC

Today the National Consumer Council - which was created by a Labour Government in 1975 - had its last Council meeting and a farewell reception for stakeholders. On 1 October, the NCC will merge with Energywatch and Postwatch to form a new stronger consumer body called Consumer Focus.

I am currently on the Council of Postwatch and the Board of Consumer Focus and I went along to the reception. It was addressed by Maurice Healy who was Chief Executive of the NCC from 1986-1991 and recounted some tales from that time.

Maurice was preceded as CEO by Jeremy Mitchell (1977-1985) who was until recently a member of the Ofcom Consumer Panel; he was followed as CEO by Ruth Evans (1992-1998) who is just about to finish being Vice-Chair of the Panel and then by Anna Bradley (1999-2002) who has recently become Chair of the Panel. Since I am a member of the Ofcom Consumer Panel, I have worked with all three of these colleagues - small world.

The last Chief Executive of the NCC was Ed Mayo (2003-2008) who is now the dynamic CEO of Consumer Focus where I am enjoying working with him

Combatting fuel poverty

This week, 12 organisations - including Energywatch which is about to go into Consumer Focus (of which I am a Board member) - have published a 10-point charter for overcoming fuel poverty in the UK.

Fuel poverty has become a national disaster - five million households in the UK won’t be able to afford to heat and power their homes this winter. Over 20,000 deaths – mostly older people - are recorded each year in England alone due to the cold, and the rise in the number of fuel poor is likely to put more lives at risk this winter. Many families with young children are forced to choose between heating their homes and cooking a hot meal.

The Charter criticises the Government for failing to do enough to help people struggling to pay their fuel bills. The experts are calling on Ministers to ramp up energy efficiency and renewable energy measures for homes, make the energy market fairer for consumers, reform the Fuel Poverty Strategy and take action to increase the incomes of those who can’t afford to heat and power their homes.

September 08, 2008

Damn that scam

Can you believe it? About 3 million Britons are being cheated of £3.5 billion a year by fraudsters who solicit money by letter, email, text and telephone, the Office of Fair Trading states today.

Fewer than one in 20 victims report their experience, but trading watchdogs hope to help consumers fight back after a survey revealed the scale of the problem for the first time.

Further information and samples of scams here

September 07, 2008

Now Canada has an election too

As if the election campaign in the United States was not enough excitement for North Americans, we now have the news - expected for several weeks - that we are going to be into an election campaign in Canada as well. It's "official" as of today and the date is 14 October.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper's Conservative Party has been in a minority government situation for the past two years He's had to rely on support from one of the other parties to get legislation through or else rely on the Liberal Party refusing to vote.

Current standings (total 308) are:
Conservative Party 127
Liberal Party 95
Bloc Quebecois 48
New Democratic Party 30
Green Party 1
Independent 3
Vacant 4

Canadians still use the British first past the post electoral system.

My man in Canada advises me as follows:

"What I expect will happen (not by any means what I want to happen!) is that the Conservative Party will win a slim majority at the expense of the Liberals and the Bloc Quebcois. Quebec nationalism is on the decline right now. The NDP (the main party of the left) will likely gain 2-3 seats.

The single Green seat is the result of a Liberal being tossed from the party after an election expense scandal and then "defecting" to the Greens. "Party-switchers" generally don't get re-elected in the general election. At best, the Green Party leader has a shot at getting elected to her seat in Nova Scotia...where she's running against the Foreign Affairs Minister."

Let's see if this assessment proves correct.

Some differences between American and British politics

As someone who is intensely interested in politics generally, and British and American politics most especially, I'm fascinated by some of the differences between the political scenes on the two sides of the Atlantic. Inevitably, I'm oversimplifying somewhat, but the following differences strike me as instructive:

  1. In the USA, blue signifies the Democratic Party, the more left-wing; in the UK, blue identifies the Conservative Party, the more right-wing.
  2. In the USA, red signifies the Republican Party, the more right-wing; in the UK, red identifies the Labour Party, the more left-wing.
  3. In America, the term 'conservative' means really right-wing, especially on social issues; in Britain the name 'Conservative' means mainstream right-wing, especially on economic issues.
  4. In America, the term 'liberal' generally means quite left-wing; in Britain, the name 'Liberal' means broadly centrist.
  5. In the States, it is considered necessary for a politician to emphasize their patriotism; in Britain, it is assumed that anyone who wants to run for national office cares for his or her country.
  6. In the States, virtually every political speech seems to mention God, especially in the final call "God bless America"; in Britain, no politician mentions God and none would think of inviting Him to show a special preference for his or her nation state.
  7. In the US, politicians frequently refer to their position on social issues like abortion and homosexuality; a British politician would think it unnecessary and inappropriate to talk about such issues unless asked.
  8. In the US, politicians constantly talk about the problems and the aspirations of the middle class; in the UK, politicians tend to talk more on the needs of the working class.
  9. So many political speeches in the US include the phrase "my fellow Americans"; in British political terminology, there is simply no equivalent phrase.
  10. Few American political speeches make much use of facts and figures; many British political speeches use figures to highlight problems and make comparisons with the policies or the performance of one's opponents.
  11. The American general election effectively lasts almost two years, starting with the declaration of candidates for the primaries; the British general election lasts around four weeks.
  12. American elections depend on vast sums to purchase broadcasting time; parties and candidates in British elections cannot buy broadcasting time.
  13. In the States, there are some outstanding political speakers, led by Bill Clinton and Barack Obama; in Britain, there is no politician who can be so inspirational, although Tony Blair at his best came close (but he's gone).
  14. In the States, almost 40 million television viewers watched the Convention speeches of Barack Obama and Sarah Palin; no party conference speech in Britain would attract more than a few million.

September 06, 2008

The American presidential election (63)

A friend has drawn my attention to this way of comparing the content of the Convention speeches by Barack Obama and John McCain - a visual representation of the frequency with which key words were used by the respective speakers. Check out 'economy'.

Why are oil prices rising so fast? (6)

Three months ago, I did my first posting on the dramatic rise in oil prices and challenged the conventional view that prices had risen so far and so fast because of an increase in demand.

In my second posting on the subject, I suggested that the markets were wrong and that oil prices would fall back. Now, in early July, the price of oil peaked at $147 a barrel, but yesterday it hit $106 - a fall of almost 30% in two months.

I wouldn't want the price of oil to be determined by a Soviet-style politburo; neither do I want it settled by a cartel such as OPEC; but the market too can - and has - got it very wrong. The market has betrayed billions of consumers and knocked off course national economies. There should be a better way.

The American presidential election (62)

OK, I've now seen the speech by John McCain to the Republican National Convention. It was just like one of his town hall meetings rather than an oratorical call to arms. It's not just that the delivery was lack-lustre - we've come to expect that. It's that it was so light on policy, especially on the crucial issue of the economy.

The faithful in the hall seemed to applaud every sentence even though his messages were aimed much more at independents than at them. Nobody can deny the outstanding personal courage that McCain showed in that Hanoi jail and his speech made much of that, but his compelling personal narrative is not a political programme and it is little wonder that his team insists that this election is not about the issues.

You can see, hear and read his speech here.

September 05, 2008

Energy suppliers ripping us off

The Local Government Association, a cross-party organisation representing more than 400 councils in England and Wales, commissioned independent experts SQW energy to investigate the published financial statements of the six major energy suppliers. You can see the results here.

in summary, the analysis found that dividend payments have risen from £1.378 billion in 2006 to £1.635 billion in 2007, an increase of £257 million or 19% and equivalent to £75 per household. Clearly the main energy companies are using their windfall profits, not for investment as they claim but, to raise dividends to shareholders.

Meanwhile, with the record price rises and no extra fuel payments it’s estimated that up to 6M households will be in fuel poverty this winter. The Government must act and Gordon Brown's response to this crisis will be a key factor in whether or not he survives as Prime Minister.

Forgotten World (145): Netherlands Antilles

It was the 17th century when the Dutch colonised the present five far-flung Caribbean islands that make up the Netherlands Antilles, alongside Aruba. The territory, once called the Dutch West Indies, became self-governing in 1954. Aruba then pulled out of the federation in 1986 to become an autonomous Dutch territory.

The other five, with a total population of only 200,000, are currently a part of the Kingdom of the Netherlands, but are set to go it alone as individual territories. Under a new political structure, agreed between the islands' leaders and the Dutch government in late 2005, the federation will be dissolved in December 2008. Curacao and Sint Maarten will become autonomous territories of the Netherlands. The less-populated islands of Bonaire, Sint Eustatius and Saba will be given city status within the Netherlands.

September 04, 2008

The American presidential election (61)

The selection of Sarah Palin, the Governor of Alaska, as John McCain's Republican running mate has certainly enlivened what was already a very exciting - and seemingly very close - presidential race. Her address to the Republican National Convention in St Paul has energised the traditional Republican base, but I'm not sure that its hard-line message is going to appeal much to independents and most especially not to disillusioned Hillary Clinton supporters. She spoke very fluently and her timing is excellent, but she was snide and divisive and small-minded.

You and see, hear and read her speech here.

Forgotten World (144): Lesotho

Lesotho - an African country with a population of less than 2 million - cannot be seen apart from South Africa. First, it is totally surrounded by the territory of the much larger state. Second, over the decades thousands of workers have been forced by the lack of job opportunities to find work at South African mines. Third, South Africa has on several occasions intervened in Lesotho's politics, including in 1998 when it sent its troops to help quell unrest.

Lesotho is made up mostly of highlands where many of the villages can be reached only on horseback, by foot or light aircraft. Major construction work has been under way in recent years to create the Lesotho Highlands Water Project to supply South Africa with fresh water.

Since the former British protectorate gained its independence in 1966, it has had a turbulent, if not particularly bloody, period of independence with several parties, army factions and the royal family competing for power in coups and mutinies. The position of king has been reduced to a symbolic and unifying role.

September 03, 2008

Is crime mapping a good idea?

London residents can see how much crime is being committed in their neighbourhood on a new website launched today. The £210,000 projects shows robbery, burglary and car-crime statistics for the capital.

Crime maps were a key manifesto pledge of the London mayor, Boris Johnson, who said today that the site would be "hugely beneficial" and would help reduce crime by putting public pressure on the police. Users can type in their postcode and zoom in to see statistics for their local area.

You can see the site here. I live in London and my local area is said to be average in terms of crime - but I have no idea whether this sort of information is useful.

Why men should never be depressed

Men are just happier people--

Your last name stays put.
The garage is all yours.
Wedding plans take care of themselves.
Chocolate is just another snack.
You can never be pregnant.
Car mechanics tell you the truth.
The world is your urinal.
You never have to drive to another petrol station restroom because this one is just too icky.
You don't have to stop and think of which way to turn a nut on a bolt.
Same work, more pay.
Wrinkles add character.
People never stare at your chest when you're talking to them.
New shoes don't cut, blister, or mangle your feet.
One mood all the time.
Phone conversations are over in 30 seconds flat.
You know stuff about tanks and engines. A five-day vacation requires only one suitcase.
You can open all your own jars.
You get extra credit for the slightest act of thoughtfulness.
Your underwear is £3.99 for a three-pack.
Three pairs of shoes are more than enough. You never have strap problems in public.
You are unable to see wrinkles in your clothes.
Everything on your face stays its original colour.
The same hairstyle lasts for years, maybe decades.
You only have to shave your face and neck.
You can play with toys all your life.
One wallet and one pair of shoes -- one colour for all seasons.
You can wear shorts no matter how your legs look.
You can 'do' your nails with a pocket knife.
You have freedom of choice concerning growing a moustache.
You can do Christmas shopping for 25 relatives on December 24 in 25 minutes.

No wonder men are happier.

When I sent this to a friend, he added:
And one more thing: they get to love women.

Aren't we the lucky ones?

Forgotten World (143): Kashmir

Kashmir is the north-western region of the Indian subcontinent. Until the mid-19th century, the term "Kashmir" referred only to the valley lying between the Great Himalayas and the Pir Panjal range. Since then, however, it has been used for a larger area that today includes the Indian-administered state of Jammu and Kashmir consisting of the Kashmir valley, Jammu and Ladakh (population 7 million); the Pakistani-administered provinces of the Northern Areas and Azad Kashmir (population 3.5 million); and the Chinese-administered region of Aksai Chin. Two-thirds of the population of Jammu (2M out of 3M) is Hindu, while the other parts of Kashmir are largely Muslim.

Though these regions are in practice administered by their respective claimants, neither India nor Pakistan has formally recognised the accession of the areas claimed by each other. India claims those areas, including the area "ceded" to China by Pakistan in the Trans-Karakoram Tract in 1963, are a part of its territory, while Pakistan claims the entire region, excluding Aksai Chin and Trans-Karakoram Tract. Indian and Pakistan have fought several declared wars over the territory, notably in 1947 and 1965. There have been renewed clashes and deaths as recently as this summer.

September 02, 2008

Bring me sunshine

"The gloomiest August on record has given way to a wet September, leaving sun-loving Brits once again feeling cheated of that most elusive of natural resources. At work and at home, at bus stops and in pubs, people talk about the weather."
This is how a BBC online piece on the British weather begins.

I always tell foreigners that Britain has four seasons - but not necessarily when one expects them and sometimes all in the same day. On the other hand, the vagaries of the British weather gives us something to talk about. Without the weather, we might have to talk about politics or religion or - perish the thought - our feelings.

Forgotten World (142): Denmark

Denmark - nation of 5.5 million - is one of the very few European countries of significant size that I have not visited. It is noted for its frequent post-war social democratic governments and high standards of living, but latterly it has had some centre-right coalitions and it is a skeptical member of the European Union, originally rejecting the Maastricht Treaty and staying outside the Euro zone.

These days Denmark is a highly free market, capitalist economy, ranking 11th of 162 countries in the Index of Economic Freedom 2008. From 2006 to 2008, surveys ranked Denmark as "the happiest place in the world," based on standards of health, welfare, and education. In the 2008 survey, the Global Peace Index ranks Denmark as the second most peaceful country in the world, after Iceland.

September 01, 2008

Understanding PMR and GCA

Five women are launching a trans-Atlantic survey to help find the causes – and cure – for two mystery illnesses, PMR and GCA, which mainly affect the over 50 ‘baby boomers’ and must cost the UK many millions of pounds. These illnesses also mainly affect women, and an estimated 100-200,00 suffer from them in the UK – and in America their baby boomer population is estimated to include around half a million affected.

Polymyalgia Rheumatica or PMR [more information here] and Giant Cell Arteritis or GCA [more information here] are debilitating and life-changing vascular inflammatory illnesses, whose main treatment currently is steroids to alleviate some symptoms – but steroids themselves have many side effects. GCA can cause partial or total loss of vision and 15-20% of GCA cases in the UK have lost partial or total vision through lack of early diagnosis and treatment.

A trans-Atlantic hunt for information is based on an online survey set up by an American PMR sufferer, with UK input  - you can access it here.

One of the five women behind this important initiative is a friend of mind and PMR/GCA sufferer Mavis Smith. You can read her personal story here ...

Mavis’s story on GCA


I felt puzzled when diagnosed with GCA. I had been feeling a bit off and suffering from intermittent headaches and toothache, but I put it down to doing too much and ignored what was going on. The headaches became worse and every bone in my face was aching, I could not chew and wanted to pull the front of my face off.

I decided to visit my GP - I did and he decided to refer to me for a scan. However I had to go back to him within a week, as I was worse than ever. I remembered my Mother had had PMR and the symptoms seemed similar. I discussed this with the GP and he ordered a blood test immediately before I left the surgery.

My GP rang at 7.45am and asked me to come in straightaway. By 10.30pm I was on a dose of 60mg and within 6 hours all the symptoms had disappeared. I could see again, the headache went away and so did all the other aches and pains. Marvellous. The steroid dosage was reduced very quickly down to 40mg then gradually down to 20mg by November 2007.

I was back at the GPs surgery on the Monday at 9am - first appointment - and it was then that they told me how close I had come to losing my sight and that I had GCA not PMR. I broke down on the Friday - a week on a roller coaster had taken its toll. By the way, I call it Giant thingy and polywotsit.

I suppose in a way I was so grateful that my sight had been saved that the complications that have followed pale into insignificance when I imagine what could have happened. I could be blind. There is no reversal.

Problems have arisen with the side effects of the steroids, to the stage where I am unable to walk more than two car lengths because of consistent and sometimes excruciating back pain, now have a Blue Badge Parking Disc, Attendance Allowance, weight gain (which does not help), peach fuzz and triple chins.

My own GP decided after about six weeks - as the back pain got worse and I started to ache in hands and knees that I probably had PMR as well. However the Consultant Rheumatologist disagreed, as I have never had the classic problem of stiffness in the morning and the inability to get out of bed. I agree with the Consultant and my GP has agreed that we will only do Blood Tests bi-monthly now as the Consultant says the sed rate can confuse the issue.

My GP insisted that the Rheumatologist sent me for a bone scan (after six months of being on steroids). The result is that I have very good bone density for my age, well within the normal parameters. He has also worked out a programme for the reduction of steroids ongoing until September 2009. This reduction plan depends on the symptoms of GCA not re-occurring. This month I am down to 12.5mg and on the 1st February reduce to 10mg, thereafter it is reduced my 1mg per month until January next year when I should be down to 3mg - then it is a three monthly reduction plan, ending up with 1mg per day. It may be that I shall have to take 1mg per day for the rest of my life - but we are all keeping our fingers crossed on that one.

Every article that I have read insists that a slow reduction of steroids is the best way of coming off them completely. I know people get impatient, as they hate the side effects, especially the weight gain - but I don't mind - I do not want to be blind and am willing to put up with every other side effect going.

Everyone is in the dark - including the Medical Profession, as there is no known cause and no known cure.

As far as I can gather, steroids make your own production system of cortisol/cortisone shut down and that is what has caused the back pain. The hope is that as the reduction in the steroid takes place the glands (adrenal?) will kick in again and as they get working the back pain will reduce and enable me to walk once more.

I see my GP monthly now and the Consultant next May - unless anything untoward happens and have had to promise them that if anything happens at the weekends I will immediately go to the nearest A&E department.

I carry my blue steroid card wherever I go in fact I have three or four in different handbags and one in the car. I still get very tired and feel lethargic, some days my head is fuzzy and I just have to retreat - but I realise this is all side-effects and I just have to get on with it as best I can or as another sufferer puts it 'go with the flow'.

Everyone is in the dark - including the Medical Profession, as there is no known cause and no known cure.

I would add that without the people I met on the Internet, I would have been driven up the wall. Self Help/Support Groups are very necessary, even just for a chat on the 'phone', an email with 'how you are at your wits end' or a cup of tea, coffee, cake, and a moan - just someone who understands what you are going through is a blessing.

If anyone wants to get in touch, feel free to email pmrfighters@yahoo.co.uk
M.R.S. North East England.

Forgotten World (141): Sardinia

It's been two months since I've run a week of postings in my long-running series called Forgotten World - a look at parts of the world that hardly feature in our media or thoughts. You can check the previous 140 entries here.

Sardinia is the second-largest island in the Mediterranean Sea (after Sicily). The island - with a population of 1.7 million - is a constitutional part of Italy, with a special statute of regional autonomy under the Italian Constitution.

Sardinia is one of two Italian regions whose inhabitants have been recognized as a "popolo" (i.e. a distinct people) by a local Statute (which is adopted with a Constitutional Law). The other region is Veneto (but this was not through a Constitutional Law). The most spoken language in Sardinia is, undoubtedly, Italian, but Sardinian - a Romance language of Latin origin - is widely spoken too in the inner areas.

The Sardinian economy is today focused on tourism, mining, commerce, services and information technology.