Why a leap day?
You'll find an explanation here.
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February 29, 2008
When will Earth end?
There's a new estimate here.
February 28, 2008
Switching off for E-Day (2)
I blogged about E-Day yesterday. Regrettably the initiative failed.
The web site puts it this way:
"E-Day did not succeed in cutting the UK's electricity demand. The drop in temperature between Wednesday 27 Feb and Thursday 28 Feb days probably caused the amount of electricity use to be higher than expected, as a result of more lights and heating being left on than were originally predicted."Perhaps it should have been publicised more.
In what country is Berwick?
The location of Berwick-upon-Tweed might seem to be a simple matter. It's in the UK, right? Yes, but which part of the UK?
Between 1147 and 1182, it changed hands between England and Scotland no less than 13 times. Although it has been part of England for five centurie now, a local poll found that residents of the town would rather be in Scotland and ruled by the Scottish Parliament than in England and ruled by Westminster.
This might seem to be a trivial - even a humorous - matter but it begs a fundamental question: What is the nature of the nation state? Subsidiary questions include: How do we define a nation state? Who decides whether a territory is to constitute a state? How do we deal with those who do not identify with the state?
I've explored these questions in this short essay.
February 27, 2008
Back to Sderot (2)
A couple of times in the last few weeks, I have blogged about Sderot, small town in Israel that is attacked by Qassam rockets from Gaza on an almost daily basis. In the first posting, I mentioned that I knew two students at Sapir College in the town. Today one of their fellow students was killed by a rocket - more information here.
Switching off for E-Day (1)
A theme of the entries on this blog this week has been energy. So it's appropriate that E-Day has just commenced and that I should highlight it on my blog.
Energy Saving Day (E-Day) is happening between 6pm today and 6pm tomorrow. Everyone in the UK is being asked:
(a) To leave off electrical items which are not in use, and
(b) To leave these items off for as long as possible.
Items which could be left off for E-Day might include:
- Lights left on in empty rooms or overnight
- Televisions left on standby overnight
- Mobile phone chargers left plugged in or
- Computers or printers left on overnight
Over the following 24 hours, E-Day will endeavour to show how even small energy saving measures can be made to add up, and potentially play a part in tackling climate change. The results will be shown on E-Day's homepage here.
Power failures in South Africa
In the last couple of days, I've blogged about the rising price of fuel in Britain but, down in South Africa, they are experiencing regular power cuts as the publicly-owned electricity provider Eskom fails to keep up with demand. Since the African National Congress came to power in 1994, South Africa has doubled the percentage of its population connected to the grid to more than 70%.
In 1998, a government report warned that, at the rate the economy was growing, the nation faced serious electricity shortages by 2007 unless capacity was expanded. The government, led by President Thabo Mbeki, who assumed office in June 1999, tried unsuccessfully to induce private investors to build additional power plants. Only recently did it permit Eskom to begin the necessary expansion.
I've been aware of the power problems in South Africa for some time because of e-mails from friends in the country, but the issue has started to be picked up by some of the world's media such as this article in the "New York Times".
February 26, 2008
Reinterpreting the Hadith
The most sacred text is Islam is of course the Koran. However, another extremely important text for Muslims is the Hadith, a collection of thousands of sayings reputed to come from the Prophet Muhammad. Therefore it is really interesting to hear that Turkey's powerful Department of Religious Affairs has commissioned a team of theologians at Ankara University to carry out a fundamental revision of the Hadith which will involve a significant modernisation of the instructions.
You can find more information on this initiative here and my review of a history of Islam here.
Smart meters a smart idea
Yesterday, I blogged about how the recent increase in fuel prices is forcing more and more UK households into fuel poverty. One way of reducing fuel usage - which saves money for consumers and reduces damaging emissions - is to install smart meters. The cost is variously estimated at between £6 billion-£13 billion, but the benefits would be considerable.
In Italy, which has had smart meters in its 30M homes since 2005, energy use has dropped 5% a year. Parts of the USA and Canada that have taken up smart meters report similar drops in consumption.
February 24, 2008
Fuel poverty growing worse
I am now a member of the Board of the New National Consumer Council which, in October, will take over Energywatch, Postwatch and the current National Consumer Council. So I'm really concerned by the recent rises in UK fuel prices to consumers.
Fuel poverty is defined as occurring when a household spends more than a 10th of its net income on electricity and gas. When the present Labour Government came to power, the then Chancellor Gordon Brown made the issue a priority and subsequently committed itself to the legally binding target of eradicating fuel poverty among vulnerable households in England by 2010 and across the UK entirely by 2018.
Yet there are now an estimated 4.5 million households in Britain who suffer from fuel poverty - the highest since Labour came to power. As explained in this piece, Friends of the Earth has told the Government to come up with a plan to tackle fuel poverty or face a judicial review.
The American presidential election (21)
As if the American presidential election was not already exciting enough - with the Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton battling it out for the Democratic nomination and John McCain still being harried by Mick Huckabee - today 73 year old Ralph Nader announced his candidacy for the fifth time [more information here].
Nader is renown as a consumer activist and consumer empowerment is something in which I believe passionately. But Nader may have caused Al Gore to lose to George Bush in 2000 and I would hate to think that there was a risk of Nader's intervention this year denying the presidency to Obama and handing it to McCain.
February 23, 2008
Welcome to the world Harvey
A new generation in my family started yesterday when my nephew Dominic and his partner Emma became proud parents of a baby boy Harvey. He arrived at 1.20pm weighing 6lb 5oz. You can view his slide show here.
I am so thrilled for Dom and Emma and wish them and Harvey all the luck in the world. I'm also delighted for my sister Silvia who becomes a grandparent for the first time.
Back to Sderot (1)
Two weeks ago, I blogged about the small Israeli town of Sderot which is being constantly targeted by Qassam rockets fired from Hamas-controlled Gaza. This week, a child lost a leg in a rocket attack. Over the past two months, an average of 50 rockets a week have been hittingthe town and its residents.
This has led the mayor of the town - Eli Moyal of the Right-wing Likud Party - to to state that he is willing to talk to Hamas You'll find the story here.
February 22, 2008
Will they ever find the original Amber Room?
Five years ago, I visited the Catherine Palace at Pushkin - until 1937 called Tsarskoe Selo (Tsar's Village) - 25 km south of St Petersburg [my account here].
A major historic feature of the palace was the Amber Room which originated from a gift of amber from the Prussians. It was taken to Germany and lost in the chaos at the end of the war. However, at a reputed cost of £3.5M, the Amber Room has been totally reconstructed and is once more one of the Catherine Palace's brightest jewels.
The original Amber Room has never been found and periodically stories emerge suggesting its location. This week, a German MP called Heinz-Peter Haustein announced his theory that the Amber Room may be situated underground near the northern German village of Deutschneudorf of which he is also mayor [further information here].
February 21, 2008
The American presidential election (20)
I am a huge fan of the American television series "The West Wing". I have seen every episode of the seven series and viewed the first five series twice. Now, in the last two series, we see the non-white character Matt Santos win the Democratic candidacy and then the Presidency itself.
One cannot help but be reminded of this narrative as one watches the astonishing rise and rise of Barack Obama. So it's fascinating to learn in this article that the scriptwriter for this section of "The West Wing" partially modelled the character on Obama.
As the piece puts it: "The result is a bizarre case of art imitating life - only for life to imitate art back again."
After Fidel ... what?
This week's announcement by Fidel Castro that he is stepping down as President of Cuba after half a century of power was of much more than passing interest to me. I'm travelling to Cuba for a holiday in two weeks time and, over the last month, I've been working my way through a huge 700-page biography of Castro called "My Life". The book is based on over 100 hours of interviews conducted by Ignacio Ramonet.
Now Ramonet has written an interesting article this week on Castro and Cuba.
He states:
"The most surprising thing that I found out about the man, in the hours we spent together compiling his memoirs, was how modest, human, discreet and respectful he was. He has a tremendous moral and ethical sense. He is a man of rigorous principles and sober existence. He is also, I discovered, passionate about the environment. He is neither the man the western media depict, nor the superman the Cuban media sometimes present. He is a normal man, albeit one who is incredibly hard working. He is also an exemplary strategist, one who has led a life of enduring resistance."
He writes of Cuba that real change will come with the election in the US of Barack Obama:
"Its socialism will undoubtedly alter - but not in the manner of a China or Vietnam. Cuba will continue to go its own way. The new regime will initiate changes at the economic level, but there will be no Cuban perestroika - no opening up of politics, no multiparty elections. Its authorities are convinced that socialism is the right choice, but that it must be forever improved. And their preoccupation now, more than ever with the retirement of Castro, will be unity. But everything in Cuba is related to the US: that is the one overarching aspect of political life which outsiders need to understand. The retirement of Castro, long anticipated, means continuity. But in the evolution of this small nation's history, the election of Obama could be seismic."
February 20, 2008
Post office closures
This is proving to be a particularly busy week with meetings morning and afternoon every day. What makes it especially challenging is the publication of the Post Office's plans to close 169 post offices - around one in the five - in the capital. As Chairman of the Greater London Region of Postwatch, the consumer body for postal consumers, I've done six radio and television interviews on the planned closures.
Nobody likes to see post offices close but the sad reality is that fewer people are using post offices – visitors are down from 28M a week to 24M a week – and Post Office Ltd is losing more and more money – losses have risen from £100M a year to £200M a year. Therefore Postwatch accepts that the network needs to be smaller if it is to be sustainable.
The closures proposed for London are similar to the scale of closures taking place in every other part of the country. Even after the closures, however, there will still be 681 offices in the capital, almost 90% of Londoners will still be able to go to the same office, and the other 10% or so should not have too far to travel to an alternative office.
We need to be sure, however, that these closures cause the minimum disruption and inconvenience to customers. This is why Postwatch took advantage of the opportunity to spend three weeks examining and challenging the Post Office’s proposals for London before they went into public consultation and why we stand ready to make further representations if the public consultation reveals new information.
February 18, 2008
Who wrote these words?
What is this life if, full of care,
We have no time to stand and stare.
We all know the words? But who wrote them?
It was the English poet William Henry Davies and the poem from which they are the opening lines is called simply "Leisure"
Davies was born in Newport in South Wales and at Easter my son will be getting married just outside the town.
February 17, 2008
The American presidential election (19)
Which candidate for the US Presidency is "an irresponsible tax-and-spend liberal", has "the most liberal voting record in 2007 of any senator", is “the most left-wing candidate to run since George McGovern” and has "the voting record of a hard-left socialist"?
According to certain excitable Republicans quoted in this piece in today's "Sunday Times", it's Barack Obama. Sounds a bit McCarthyist to me.
February 16, 2008
The wonder of wu xia
I'm a massive film fan and four of the most visually stunning movies I have ever seen are wu xia films. I viewed one of them again this weekend with enormous pleasure. The four films are:
The other American presidential candidate (2)
A month ago, I did a blog posting about the then impending election of a President for the Czech Republic. I explained that the incumbent, the Right-wing and Euro-sceptic former Prime Minister Václav Klaus ought to win a second term, but that he was being opposed by a Czech American who works for the World Bank called Jan Svejnar who had the support of former President Václav Havel. It may be that, in all the excitement about the US presidential race, you forgot about the Czech election and certainly outside the Czech Republic nobody has covered it, so let me tell you the result.
President Václav Klaus has been re-elected to a second term by Czech parliamentary deputies, but only after a political crisis and several rounds of voting. Following three rounds of voting, Klaus received 141 votes at a joint session of both houses of parliament in the final round. Challenger Jan Švejnar received 111 votes. A third candidate fielded by the Communist Party dropped out.
The things you learn on NightHawk ...
February 15, 2008
Personalising your album cover
I think that this site is a fun idea.
Forgotten World (125): Benin
Benin, formerly known as Dahomey, is one of Africa's most stable democracies with a proliferation of political parties and a strong civil society. The International Press Institute (IPI) says Benin has one of the region's "most vibrant media landscapes". Press freedom is said to be in "very good shape" by the media rights body Reporters Without Borders.
On the economic side, however, the picture is less appealing for the population of just 9 M. While Benin has seen economic growth over the past few years and is one of Africa's largest cotton producers, it ranks among the world's poorest countries. The economy relies heavily on trade with its eastern neighbour, Nigeria. Benin is severely underdeveloped and corruption is rife.
It is believed that voodoo originated in Benin and was introduced to Brazil, the Caribbean Islands, and parts of North America by slaves taken from this particular area of the Slave Coast. The indigenous religion of Benin is practiced by about 60% of the population and the country has a National Voodoo Holiday.
February 14, 2008
How to start each day ...
... with a positive outlook:
1. Open a new file in your computer.
2. Name it "Robert Mugabe".
3. Send it to the Recycle Bin.
4. Empty the Recycle Bin.
5. Your PC will ask you. "Are you sure you want to delete "Robert Mugabe?"
6. Firmly click "Yes."
7. Feel better?
Feel free to choose another name or a new one each day.
Forgotten World (124): Nauru
Named Pleasant Island by its first European visitors, the former British colony of Nauru is the world's smallest island nation, covering just 21 km² (8.1 sq. mi), and the world's smallest independent republic with a a mere 10,000 citizens, as well as being the only republican state in the world without an official capital.
This tiny Pacific island once generated a per capita income out of proportion to its size, but the source of this wealth - phosphates - is nearing exhaustion, leaving the islanders facing an uncertain future. While the mining of 1,000 years' worth of fossilised bird droppings has been lucrative, Nauru relies on imports for almost everything - from food and water to fuel. Moreover, recent financial crises have precipitated a slide into bankruptcy and a dependence on aid. The country had to sell off its assets in Australia to pay off a multi-million dollar debt to a US corporation.
February 13, 2008
Understanding the sub prime crisis
The American presidential election (18)
However you count it, Barack Obama has now taken the delegate lead over Hillary Clinton, following three more convincing victories in state primaries yesterday. You can see different estimates of the precise numbers here.
Forgotten World (123): Ecuador
Ecuador - a South American country of 14M - is a patchwork of indigenous communities, including people of colonial Spanish origins and the descendants of African slaves. Traditionally a farming country, Ecuador's economy was transformed after the 1960s by the growth of industry and the discovery of oil. There was rapid growth and progress in health, education and housing.
However, not all Ecuadorans have benefited equally from oil revenues. The traditionally dominant Spanish-descended elite gained far more than indigenous peoples and those of mixed descent. Steps to stabilise the economy, such as austerity measures and privatisation, have generated widespread unrest, particularly among the indigenous poor.
Some 1,000 km (600 miles) off the coast, the volcanic Galapagos Islands are home to the animals and birds whose evolutionary adaptations shaped Charles Darwin's theories.
February 12, 2008
The American presidential election (17)
Forgotten World (122): Portugal
By the 16th century, the seafaring nation of Portugal had built a huge empire embracing Brazil as well as swathes of Africa and Asia. There are still some 200 million Portuguese speakers around the world today. Now though it is simply a small member of the European Union with less than 11 million citizens. Although having one of the lowest GDP per capita of Western European countries, it has a high Human Development Index and is among the world's 20 highest rated countries in terms of quality of life.
The Anglo-Portuguese Alliance between England (succeeded by the United Kingdom) and Portugal is the oldest alliance in the world which is still in force. It was signed in 1373. This alliance, which goes back to the Middle Ages, has served both countries. It was very important throughout history, influencing the participation of the United Kingdom in the Iberian Peninsular War (the UK's major land contribution to the Napoleonic Wars), among other things.
February 11, 2008
Forgotten World (121): Sderot
It's time for another week of postings in my long-running series called Forgotten World - a look at parts of the world that hardly feature in our media or thoughts. You can check the previous 120 entries here.
One of the most dangerous spots on earth is somewhere of which you've probably never heard. Sderot is a working-class town of mainly North African immigrants in Israel located a mere kilometre from the north-east corner of Gaza. Over the past four years, it has been hit by over 6,000 Qassam rockets of improving range and explosive power - all fired from Hamas-controlled Gaza. In a gesture of solidarity, El Al (Israel's national airline) named one of its first two Boeing 777 passenger planes "Sderot"
Amazingly only eight Sderot civilians have actually been killed. But people living there never know when the next rocket is coming and live in a state of permanent fear with as many buildings as possible having a bomb shelter and reinforced roofing. The Israeli army has installed a system called "Red Dawn" to warn of incoming rockets but the alert gives the town's residents a mere 15-20 seconds to find shelter.
The town used to house 24,000 but that is now down to perhaps 17,000. It is the location of the Sapir College school of film and television where two young people I know are students.
February 10, 2008
"Atonement" - the film and the book
As a massive movie fan, I've had an enjoyable evening watching the BAFTA Film Awards on BBC television. It was good to see a British film "Atonement" [my review here] win the Best Film Award and I was even more impressed with the novel [my review here].
The American presidential election (16)
In my blog posting on the Super Tuesday event in London, I mentioned that British presenter Robin Oakley was there for CNN. In this story, he explains that the ballot boxes produced a 971 to 422 victory for Obama.
If the British could vote in the US presidential elections of 2008, I think that they would go massively for the Democratic candidate and, if they could vote in the Democratic primaries, I believe they would choose Obama.
Euphemisms and Obfuscations
This web page is fun - and insightful.
February 09, 2008
The American presidential election (15)
The "Mirror" newspaper today, in what it claims as an exclusive, has discovered a connection between Britain and Democratic hopeful Barack Obama. His stepmother Kezia Obama lives in Bracknell. You'll find the story here.
The American presidential election (14)
Hillary Clinton's camp is now bracing its supporters for the time when in the next few weeks Barack Obama will overtake her in the delegate count. This is clever - it seeks to minimise the psychological boost that this will give to the Obama team. However, in a crucial sense, Obama is already in the lead.
The figures are changing all the time but right now, according to the 2008 Democratic Convention Watch web site, Clinton has 1,063 delegates and Obama has 984. But about a third of the delegates who will go to the convention are what are called super delegates. They are not chosen through caucuses or primaries; they have an automatic right to attend the convention and vote because they are state governors or members of Congress and the like.
If you take away the super delegate votes so far declared, then Clinton has 842 elected delegates and Obama beats her with 859.
If we reach the Convention with one candidate having more elected delegates and another having more total delegates, there will be an almighty row about the nature of democracy.
If you're finding the American presidential election complicated, don't worry. In a a few weeks, the Russians will have a presidential election which will be much simpler and quicker and cheaper - although less exciting and democratic.
February 08, 2008
"The Kite Runner" - the film and the book
February 07, 2008
Islam in English law
If you want to read what the Archbishop of Canterbury actually said on this subject - although his thinking is odd and his language opaque - you can check it out here.
My personal position is very clear: there should be a complete separation of religion and the state and there should be a single system of law equally applicable to all the nation's citizens regardless of their religious belief or non-belief.
How many users actually generate content?
The new DCMS/BERR Convergence Think Tank holds its first seminar today. The subject is : Why does convergence matter? This seminar will seek to set the scene for the CTT programme and establish the key challenges and goals.
In its submission, the National Union of Journalists (NUJ) expresses concerns about user generated content (UGC):
"While the NUJ welcomes the access to online media afforded by Web 2.0, we do have concerns about the effect on standards of unlimited and unedited contributions. Publishers welcome the availability of “user-generated content” – or “citizen journalism” as it is known in the context of news – principally because it comes free of charge. Some commentators like to dress it up as a great advance in democracy and pronounce that professionally produced news will become a thing of the past.I write a monthly column on Internet matters and devoted one article to the issue of user generated content.
However, Peter Horrocks, head of the multimedia news department within BBC News, recently talked about the fact that only one per cent of the audience engage with the BBC in any way, whether through traditional audience feedback or via text, phone or email and that people should remember that the BBC is for everyone, not just the participative 1%."
February 06, 2008
The American presidential election (13)
Today I received the following e-mail:
"Hi Roger, my name is Leah and I have been browsing your site looking for information on how the American elections are run. I am Canadian and I'm just now trying to understand the system. It is extra important to me this year because of the candidates in the running. I truly find it confusing so if you could take a minute to explain to me how all these primaries and pre-votes etc. work within the system I sure would appreciate it. Thank you, in advance, for your time.I thought that readers of NightHawk might find my answer of some interest:
The key point to understand is that formally the Democratic and Republican Parties choose their Presidential candidate through a vote of delegates at a convention and not directly through the various ballots in the various primaries.
Each party allocates delegates to each state, roughly proportionate to its size in numbers of citizens. There are two types of delegates. The normal delegates are those who are chosen by voters to back a specific candidate. Technically these delegates are pledged to that candidate but there are circumstances in which they can switch their support. Then there are super delegates who are notable figures in the party such as former presidents, governors and members of Congress who are free to back whichever candidate they wish. They can do this any time they like. They can also change their mind before the convention.
For the 2008 conventions, the Democrats have a total of 4,049 delegates including super delegates and so, to win the nomination, the Democratic front runner needs a total of 2,025 delegates. The Republicans have a total of 2,380 delegates including super delegates and so, to win the nomination, the Republican front runner needs a total of 1,191 delegates .
How the normal delegates are chosen is a matter for each party in each of the 50 states.
Some hold caucuses which require voters to turn up to discussions on the merits of the contending candidates. Most hold conventional-style elections. Another variation is that in some cases one can only take part in a caucus or election if one is registered for that political party but, in other cases, anyone in the state - including those registered for another party or none - can vote.
How normal delegates are then allocated to the different candidates is also a matter for each party in each of the 50 states. In most of the Republican contests (but not all), the candidate who wins the most votes in that state's primary wins all the party's delegates for that state - a system known as 'winner takes all'. In all the Democrat contests, delegates are allocated roughly proportional to the vote secured by the candidate subject to a minimum performance. The allocation process varies but typically it is based on the performance of the candidate in particular Congressional districts.
50 years since Munich disaster
It is 50 years today since the Munich air disaster of 6 February 1958, when British European Airways Flight 609 crashed on its third attempt to takeoff from a slush-covered runway at the Munich-Riem airport. On board the plane was the Manchester United football team, nicknamed the Busby Babes, along with a number of supporters and journalists. Twenty-three of the 44 passengers on board the aircraft died in the disaster - including eight of the Busby Babes.
Except for the first 18 months of my life, I lived in Manchester until I was 22. At the time of the air disaster, I was nine years old. I remember a palpable sense of gloom descending over the whole city. I noted that one of the dead players - 28 year old Roger Byrne - had the same first name as me. However, I probably felt the loss most of 21 year old Duncan Edwards, the star of the United team who survived for two weeks before dying of his injuries. He was born in Dudley in the Midlands, just down the road from my own birth place in Sedgley.
Many, many years years later, I wrote a biography of my wife's father, a wartime night fighter ace. He died in 1959. At the time of his death, he was a pilot with BEA and one of those who attended his funeral was James Thain, the pilot at the controls in Munich.
February 05, 2008
The American presidential election (12)
This evening, I came as close as I'm personally going to get to the American presidential race. I turned up at Porchester Hall in Bayswater in central London where Democrats Abroad were organising a ballot for Americans living in London. Apparently in 2004, 650 Democrats took the chance to vote in London; tonight it was many more.
I had to stand in a long queue - a line for you Americans - before I could gain entry to the hall. The Obama supporters were much more in evidence at the entrance to the hall chanting "Fired up! Ready to go! Yes we can!" The group pf three young friends immediately in front of me were still debating the merits of the candidates. The guy had had Obama as his State Senator in Illinois and was a clear fan but the two women said that they had still not made up their minds.
By the time I gained access to the Hall, the speeches were over but there was still a great atmosphere. In the main room, one end was decked out with Obama material and the other with Clinton signage. One of my favourite posters announced: "Another mama for Obama". One table was selling Barack and Hillary cookies (although their pictures were not edible and were to be stuck on a wall behind).
There was a substantial media presence - about 100 covered the event - including former BBC journalist Robin Oakley reporting for CNN. The atmosphere was one of palpable excitement. People there knew that this election is different and there was a sense of enthusiasm and hope.
The actual voting was far from secret. Americans had to show their passport and register with Democrats Abroad. The voter puts his or her name and address on the ballot paper. Then the ballot paper is placed in one of four boxes on the stage in full view: one marked Clinton, one marked Obama, a third marked Edwards, Biden, Kucinich, Richardson, Uncommitted, and a fourth simply stating Anonymous.
Although British and having no vote, I was at the Porchester Hall as a guest of my good American friend Eric Lee - a fierce supporter of John Edwards who, in spite of Edwards withdrawal from the race, still voted for his man [for his reasoning, see here].
So I'm home now and will stay up to watch at least the early results on BBC24 and CNN.
The American presidential election (11)
I know that I'm a bit of a political geek and so not all readers of NightHawk will share my fascination with the current electoral races in the United States. But, on this day of Super Tuesday, just read one article on why "There's been no contest like it. Not since never".
The American presidential election (10)
As we await the results of Super Tuesday, check out this "Yes We Can" video in support of Barack Obama:
February 04, 2008
The American presidential election (9)
Tomorrow is Super Tuesday in the American primaries to determine the Democratic and Republican candidates for the Presidency. It is given this name because so many states are voting on the same day.
In the case of the Democrats, 22 states are choosing a candidate plus Democrats abroad (I hope to observe an event in London). Altogether this will account for 2,075 delegates out of a total of 4,049 including super delegates (former presidents, governors and members of Congress). To win the nomination, the Democratic front runner needs a total of 2,025 delegates.
The key states tomorrow are California (441 delegates), New York (281), Illinois (185), New Jersey (127), Massachusetts (121) and Georgia (103). All these counts include super delegates.
In the Republican primaries, the winner in a particular state often takes all that state's delegates but, in the case of the Democrats, delegates are allocated roughly proportionate to votes.
So John McCain will probably sew up the Republican nomination tomorrow, but neither Barack Obama - my preferred candidate - nor Hillary Clinton is likely to make a knock-out blow, so the Democratic contest will continue through March and April - although a favourite might emerge on Tuesday.
February 02, 2008
How to think critically
I'm a great believer in clear and critical thinking and one of the most visited pages on my web site is my advice of "How To Think Critically".
Therefore I was pleased to have my attention drawn recently to a really good web site which presents an encyclopedia of errors of reasoning.
In fact, yesterday I bought a new book yesterday called "Counterknowledge" which is sub-titled "How we surrendered to the conspiracy theories, quack medicine, bogus science and fake history".